Opening Day

First, in Donkey Kong news -  there isn't any.  I have taken a break for the last 2 weeks or so.  Before that I was routinely scoring up in the 180 and 190ks and broke 200k on a couple of occasions but, alas, 250k remains a glass ceiling for the time being.

But today is Opening Day eve - except for the Dodgers and Padres, who open tonight.  As such I thought that this would be a good time to put my thoughts on the season together.

The 25-man roster was finalized yesterday and is comprised of the following:

Catchers: Welington Castillo and John Baker

Infield: Anthony Rizzo, Darwin Barney, Mike Olt, Starlin Castro, Emilio Bonifacio and Luis Valbuena

Outfield: Junior Lake, Ryan Sweeney, Justin Ruggiano, Nate Schierholtz and Ryan Kalish 

Starting pitchers: Jeff Samardzija, Travis Wood, Edwin Jackson, Jason Hammel and Villanueva

Bullpen: Jose Veras (closer), James Russell, Wesley Wright, Brian Schlitter, Pedro Strop, Hector Rondon and Justin Grimm

Unless you are an even bigger Cubs fan than me, a lot of those names are probably unfamiliar to you.  In fact, unless my math is wrong I believe there are only 11 players that carried over from last year's opening day (Castillo, Rizzo, Barney, Castro, Valbuena, Schierholz, Samardzija, Wood, Jackson, Villanueva, and Russell).  That's a lot of turnover in one year.

Does this represent rock bottom or the point where all these players nobody had ever heard of broke through and became stars?  Who knows.

Rizzo and Castro have to anchor the team this year.  End of story.  If they have another year like last year . . . well, it will turn out like another year like last year.  Schierholtz needs to repeat his solid performance last year.  Castillo had a decent year and now needs to take the next step forward.  Barney . . . needs to be relegated to a bench role ASAP.  Bonifacio is a very good 4th outfielder but if he's in the everyday starting lineup we've got big problems.  Same with Valbuena at 3rd.  John Baker - eh, who cares about the backup catcher. The rest (Olt, Sweeney, Lake, Ruggiano, and Kalish) are prospects getting their shot - they need to prove they belong.  Olt has by far the most upside.  He could turn into a bona fide superstar - or he could flame out spectacularly like so many other top prospects do.

The player in the minors to watch is Javier Baez, particularly whether or not they start playing him at 2nd or leave him at short.  If it's 2nd, then I think the clear plan is to get him up here ASAP (I'd guess May 15th or so) and then either bench, trade, or waive Barney.  If he's left at short, then I think they're on a longer timeline with him and they may still be thinking of moving Castro to 2nd or trading him.

On the pitching side of things I think the starting pitching will be serviceable if mediocre and the bullpen is just one huge question mark.  There's certainly no one in the starting 5 that you feel good about when going up against a true ace (or even a good team's number 2) but on the other hand there isn't anybody that I'm marking down as an automatic loss either.  The bullpen is just a huge question mark.  Russell is the lone holdover and is a very solid arm.  Veras is a veteran that has been largely good throughout his career but at 33 who knows how much he has left.  Strop has a good arm but has been inconsistent.  Everybody else is either young and inexperienced or, in the case of Grimm, was a starter and is trying out a new rule.  As such, the pen could end up being a strength, disaster, or pretty much anywhere in between.

Samardzija *should* really be the only one possibly dumped at the trade deadline so at least we shouldn't have to worry about them completely tanking just as they are starting to play well in mid-July like the last two seasons.  But the thing about having a young team is that who stays and goes will be determined by on field performance.  There are a number of other players (like Baez) knocking on the door at AAA so if the MLB team does not perform this is a roster that could be very much in flux this year.

My overall prediction: I'll be semi-optimistic and say 77-85.  I think that they will be a fairly fun team to watch in the sense that you're watching young players who are still excited to play at this level rather than older veterans who are treating it like work.  I think they will show flashes of the talent they have and will probably put together 2-3 long good stretches (1-2 weeks each) where it looks like it's all coming together.  But the youth and inexperience that is sometimes an asset will also show up in inconsistency, mental lapses, and struggles to turn things around during the inevitable bad times.  So out of the 6-month season, I predict they'll play 3 months at or within 1-2 games of .500, one month way above .500, and 2 months way below .500.

On the season ticket front, the home opener is set for Friday and the forecast is . . . less than ideal.  High in the low 40s and 90% chance of rain.  Wasn't planning on going to but may end up having to go if the tickets don't sell.  Time to drop those prices on Stubhub!