2008 Cubs Season Preview

The Shamrock Shuffle 8k was today and boy what a wonderful day for a race! 39 degrees with a wind and a slight drizzle. It was actually not bad during the race but before and then especially after were pretty brutal. Nevertheless, I actually did pretty good, especially considering I haven't run at all in about a month. I decided beforehand that as long as I finished in under an hour I would be happy. Well, I ended up doing quite a bit better than that, finishing in 49:56. That works out to just a little over 10:20/mile. Although fairly short, this race also has the distinction of being the longest race I have ever run without stopping to walk at all. I'm probably going to do a 10k in a month or two and I'll hope to set a new personal best there too. The overall goal for me will be to be able to run the half-marathon in August without stopping. And before anyone asks, no I absolutely have not changed my mind and decided to run another full marathon! Last year was, and forever will be, a one shot deal! Another first for today was Christy running her first race ever. Congratulations dear! Up next for us is the "Race to Wrigley" in two weeks, which is just a short 5k that starts and ends at Wrigley Field. I'll be looking to finish in under 30 mins in that one.

Anyway, as promised I'll get on with my probably-not-at-all anticipated preview of the 2008 Cubs. This one won't be as lengthy as last year's, partially because I don't feel like it and partially because there haven't been all that many changes from last year.

It has been 100 years since the Cubs last won the World Series. From reading other season previews, it appears that it is a requirement to mention this when previewing the Cubs and I have now fulfilled my obligation to do so.

Outfield
Alfonso Soriano - LF
Felix Pie - CF
Kosuke Fukodome - RF

This is probably the biggest change from last year. Last March, it looked like the Cubs might have quite possibly one of the worst defensive outfields of all time, and now it looks like they may have the best in the NL. All three outfielders have absolute cannons for arms and I don't think the opposition will be testing them much after the first month of the year. The only shortcoming is Soriano's less than stellar jumps he gets on balls, but this is far less an issue now that he will be permanently in left field instead of the ill-fated center field experiment from last year. Offensively, this group is more of a question mark. While it's pretty clear Soriano will hit, he's made mention of the fact that he's still not psychologically ready to test his injured hamstring 100% and if his base-stealing ability is hampered that's a sizeable loss from his game. Fukodome, the Cub's biggest free agent signing during the offseason, is playing in the majors for the first time and it's anyone's guess how well he will make the transition. He has a great eye for the strike zone, though, so even if he struggles with hits the OBP should still be respectable. Finally Felix Pie, the latest "next big thing" from the Cubs minor league system, finally gets his shot this year. He's a great talent and has had a really good spring, but Cubs fans still haven't gotten over the hype and disappointment surrounding Corey Patterson and that is tempering the excitement somewhat. It's not fair to hold Pie responsible for that but that doesn't change things.

Infield
Derek Lee - 1B
Mark DeRosa - 2B
Ryan Theriot - SS
Aramis Ramirez - 3B
Geovany Soto - C

The most notable thing about this is who is NOT included here, as 4 months of Brian Roberts to the Cubs rumors have apparently all been for naught, and the Cubs will go into the year with the same starters here as from last year. Theriot is clearly the weak link here, but apart from a horrendous September he put up decent numbers last year. I'm willing to chalk that up to him tiring and I don't think it's unreasonable to expect average numbers from him (maybe .275/.330 AVG/OBP). Still, I don't think he'll be the make or break player for the Cubs. If he is the worst hitter on the team this year, they'll be fine. Lee, DeRosa, and Ramirez are, well, Lee, DeRosa, and Ramirez. They're all veterans at this point and they can all be penciled in to achieve approximately their career averages. Soto is the question mark here. He hit the cover off the ball last September and in the playoffs, but came into spring apparently overweight and has underwhelmed in March. Hopefully, he can turn it on starting tomorrow. Defense is solid at all positions.

Starting Pitching
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Rich Hill
Jason Marquis
Ryan Dempster

Here you've got Dempster coming out of the bullpen taking Sean Marshall's place but other than that it's again the same as last year (which is a good thing). I expect Dempster to be serviceable in general but get absolutely shelled one out of every 5 times out. I expect Marquis to start strong and then fade after the all-star break. I expect Rich Hill to take the next step towards becoming a dominant pitcher in the NL. I expect Lilly to regress from his very good year last season but still put up good numbers. Finally, as has been the case for the past 3 years, I expect Zambrano to finally stop his inconsistency and become one of the elite pitchers in the game.

Bullpen
Michael Wuertz
Carlos Marmol
Jon Lieber
Kevin Hart
Carmen Pignatiello
Bob Howry
Kerry Wood - Closer

Apart from the uncertainty surrounding Wood transitioning to the closer role, this should just flat out be the best bullpen in the NL. The Cubs should not lose many games that they are leading after 6.

Bench
Darryl Ward
Ronny Cedeno
Henry Blanco
Mike Fontenot
Reed Johnson

Ward should continue to be one of the best pinch hitters in the game. Other than that, this is a serviceable but unspectacular bench. No automatic outs, but no one that gets you excited either. Murton got caught in a roster crunch when the Cubs signed Reed Johnson. Hopefully Reed and his ridiculous goatee will prove to be worth it. While I understand Hendry's desire to do the right thing for Murton by trading him to a place where he'll have the opportunity to play every day, I am really hoping he keeps him around to potentially include in a trade near the All-Star break.

So, overall the Cubs improved a little bit from last year. Well, at least on paper they did. However, they've also had exactly 2 back to back winning seasons in the last 35 years and they had a winning season last year so who knows. It's nice to go into a season where you don't have to root for absolutely everything to go your way in order to be competitive. For all the slack Hendry gets (much of it deserved) I think he's done a real nice job in the past couple years stocking the farm system with near major league ready talent. If someone goes down or severely underperforms, I'm confident that he has the pieces to either fill the hole in house or use them as chips in a trade.

Prediction: 91 wins and back-to-back Central division crowns!!!! However, my reckless prediction at the beginning of last year notwithstanding, I'm going to refrain from predicting their fate in the playoffs. That time of the year it is all about matchups and momentum that it's just completely baseless speculation to predict now. All I'll say is that the Cubs can go toe to toe with anyone in the NL. If it's true that pitching and defense win championships, the Cubs have as good a chance as they've ever had of raising the banner this year.

Enjoy opening day and the next six months!