2008 Cubs Season Preview

The Shamrock Shuffle 8k was today and boy what a wonderful day for a race! 39 degrees with a wind and a slight drizzle. It was actually not bad during the race but before and then especially after were pretty brutal. Nevertheless, I actually did pretty good, especially considering I haven't run at all in about a month. I decided beforehand that as long as I finished in under an hour I would be happy. Well, I ended up doing quite a bit better than that, finishing in 49:56. That works out to just a little over 10:20/mile. Although fairly short, this race also has the distinction of being the longest race I have ever run without stopping to walk at all. I'm probably going to do a 10k in a month or two and I'll hope to set a new personal best there too. The overall goal for me will be to be able to run the half-marathon in August without stopping. And before anyone asks, no I absolutely have not changed my mind and decided to run another full marathon! Last year was, and forever will be, a one shot deal! Another first for today was Christy running her first race ever. Congratulations dear! Up next for us is the "Race to Wrigley" in two weeks, which is just a short 5k that starts and ends at Wrigley Field. I'll be looking to finish in under 30 mins in that one.

Anyway, as promised I'll get on with my probably-not-at-all anticipated preview of the 2008 Cubs. This one won't be as lengthy as last year's, partially because I don't feel like it and partially because there haven't been all that many changes from last year.

It has been 100 years since the Cubs last won the World Series. From reading other season previews, it appears that it is a requirement to mention this when previewing the Cubs and I have now fulfilled my obligation to do so.

Outfield
Alfonso Soriano - LF
Felix Pie - CF
Kosuke Fukodome - RF

This is probably the biggest change from last year. Last March, it looked like the Cubs might have quite possibly one of the worst defensive outfields of all time, and now it looks like they may have the best in the NL. All three outfielders have absolute cannons for arms and I don't think the opposition will be testing them much after the first month of the year. The only shortcoming is Soriano's less than stellar jumps he gets on balls, but this is far less an issue now that he will be permanently in left field instead of the ill-fated center field experiment from last year. Offensively, this group is more of a question mark. While it's pretty clear Soriano will hit, he's made mention of the fact that he's still not psychologically ready to test his injured hamstring 100% and if his base-stealing ability is hampered that's a sizeable loss from his game. Fukodome, the Cub's biggest free agent signing during the offseason, is playing in the majors for the first time and it's anyone's guess how well he will make the transition. He has a great eye for the strike zone, though, so even if he struggles with hits the OBP should still be respectable. Finally Felix Pie, the latest "next big thing" from the Cubs minor league system, finally gets his shot this year. He's a great talent and has had a really good spring, but Cubs fans still haven't gotten over the hype and disappointment surrounding Corey Patterson and that is tempering the excitement somewhat. It's not fair to hold Pie responsible for that but that doesn't change things.

Infield
Derek Lee - 1B
Mark DeRosa - 2B
Ryan Theriot - SS
Aramis Ramirez - 3B
Geovany Soto - C

The most notable thing about this is who is NOT included here, as 4 months of Brian Roberts to the Cubs rumors have apparently all been for naught, and the Cubs will go into the year with the same starters here as from last year. Theriot is clearly the weak link here, but apart from a horrendous September he put up decent numbers last year. I'm willing to chalk that up to him tiring and I don't think it's unreasonable to expect average numbers from him (maybe .275/.330 AVG/OBP). Still, I don't think he'll be the make or break player for the Cubs. If he is the worst hitter on the team this year, they'll be fine. Lee, DeRosa, and Ramirez are, well, Lee, DeRosa, and Ramirez. They're all veterans at this point and they can all be penciled in to achieve approximately their career averages. Soto is the question mark here. He hit the cover off the ball last September and in the playoffs, but came into spring apparently overweight and has underwhelmed in March. Hopefully, he can turn it on starting tomorrow. Defense is solid at all positions.

Starting Pitching
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Rich Hill
Jason Marquis
Ryan Dempster

Here you've got Dempster coming out of the bullpen taking Sean Marshall's place but other than that it's again the same as last year (which is a good thing). I expect Dempster to be serviceable in general but get absolutely shelled one out of every 5 times out. I expect Marquis to start strong and then fade after the all-star break. I expect Rich Hill to take the next step towards becoming a dominant pitcher in the NL. I expect Lilly to regress from his very good year last season but still put up good numbers. Finally, as has been the case for the past 3 years, I expect Zambrano to finally stop his inconsistency and become one of the elite pitchers in the game.

Bullpen
Michael Wuertz
Carlos Marmol
Jon Lieber
Kevin Hart
Carmen Pignatiello
Bob Howry
Kerry Wood - Closer

Apart from the uncertainty surrounding Wood transitioning to the closer role, this should just flat out be the best bullpen in the NL. The Cubs should not lose many games that they are leading after 6.

Bench
Darryl Ward
Ronny Cedeno
Henry Blanco
Mike Fontenot
Reed Johnson

Ward should continue to be one of the best pinch hitters in the game. Other than that, this is a serviceable but unspectacular bench. No automatic outs, but no one that gets you excited either. Murton got caught in a roster crunch when the Cubs signed Reed Johnson. Hopefully Reed and his ridiculous goatee will prove to be worth it. While I understand Hendry's desire to do the right thing for Murton by trading him to a place where he'll have the opportunity to play every day, I am really hoping he keeps him around to potentially include in a trade near the All-Star break.

So, overall the Cubs improved a little bit from last year. Well, at least on paper they did. However, they've also had exactly 2 back to back winning seasons in the last 35 years and they had a winning season last year so who knows. It's nice to go into a season where you don't have to root for absolutely everything to go your way in order to be competitive. For all the slack Hendry gets (much of it deserved) I think he's done a real nice job in the past couple years stocking the farm system with near major league ready talent. If someone goes down or severely underperforms, I'm confident that he has the pieces to either fill the hole in house or use them as chips in a trade.

Prediction: 91 wins and back-to-back Central division crowns!!!! However, my reckless prediction at the beginning of last year notwithstanding, I'm going to refrain from predicting their fate in the playoffs. That time of the year it is all about matchups and momentum that it's just completely baseless speculation to predict now. All I'll say is that the Cubs can go toe to toe with anyone in the NL. If it's true that pitching and defense win championships, the Cubs have as good a chance as they've ever had of raising the banner this year.

Enjoy opening day and the next six months!

A Bruised, Bloody, and Beaten Bracket

So, my prediction of a UCLA/Kansa final game is still intact, but unfortunately little else is in my sorry looking bracket. Hindsight is always 20/20, but as I review my picks there is a lot more "what was I thinking?" than normal. Indiana in the elite 8 by beating Arkansas and North Carolina in Raleigh? Duke in the elite 8 because I couldn't decide who would win between Xavier and Purdue? And man did I misjudge the Big East. After watching their conference tourney, I thought "wow; Georgetown's really good and Pitt just destroyed them" when the proper conclusion to draw seems to be "Georgetown just got exposed because Pitt's not that good of a team." Oh well; I don't think I've ever won a tourney pool so I suppose the only difference this year is that I knew on day 3 that I was totally out of it instead of sometime during the 2nd weekend. I still am alive to maybe claw my way back into 3rd place, but I'm certainly not holding my breath.

So the Cubs season gets underway on Monday. I have been holding off on my season preview because there have been a lot of signs that some significant moves would get made before the start of the season. Now, however, other than a minor signing of a backup outfielder it looks like the team is largely the same group that entered spring training 5 weeks ago. I'll probably end up writing the preview this weekend during a CPA study break.

Really looking forward to seeing the movie 21, which comes out tomorrow. It's based on a true story about a group of students at MIT who took Vegas for a couple million dollars by counting cards at blackjack. I heard about this story a few years ago and have read a couple articles about it. I know there will be embellishments, but I really hope they don't go too overboard with it. The true story is intriguing enough that you don't need the extra drama.

Upset special for this round is Michigan St. over Memphis. That team just can't shoot free throws.

Have a good weekend everyone!

Halfway to a CPA!

Found out Saturday that I rocked the house on my 2nd CPA test (REG), getting a 91. Two more tests to go, with the next one (Audit) on tap for April 2nd and the final one (FAR) three weeks later on April 23rd. With any luck I will have my official certification by Memorial Day.

On Wednesday I am taking off with some friends to a cabin at White Pines State Park to pretty much do nothing but watch basketball for 3 straight days. Now, when I say "cabin" we are using this term in the loosest possible sense, since it has 3 bedrooms, a full kitchen, gas fireplace, propane grill, and a flat screen tv with satellite cable. So, yeah, we'll be roughing it. Of course, that should put me in fantastic shape for the 8k Shamrock Shuffle, which is less than 2 weeks away.

Since I'm taking a couple days off of work this week, I'm trying to get a little ahead so I don't end up with an avalanche of work when I get back Monday. So even though I've got enough thoughts to fill a couple pages today, I'll be brief (I can almost hear the cheers):

• The Super Bowl is my single favorite sports game, but March Madness is my favorite sports event overall. For most of the country, the Super Bowl is just about drinking and overeating but the way March Madness captures the mind of the whole country (at least this week) is without parallel. Of course, I'm not discounting the role of drinking and overeating here too. As Americans, we generally believe that every event would be better if we were drunk and eating something. And we are not wrong.
• By the way, we're looking at a UCLA-Kansas championship game this year, with UCLA winning it. You heard it here first.
• I was disappointed that Illinois lost yesterday, but I was pleased that after writing the season off 2 months ago I at least got to experience a little more excitement this year.
• Christy and I went to see "Horton Hears a Who" on Friday. It is pretty good, but you can definitely tell it comes from source material that's about 20 pages long. There's enough adult humor to keep those over 12 entertained, but you won't be missing anything by waiting for it on DVD.
• Speaking of DVD, No Country for Old Men is out now. If you're one of the few not into basketball, go out and rent that along with Gone Baby Gone and American Gangster and you will have yourself a good weekend in that will reaffirm your belief that Hollywood actually still can make good movies.
• If you do see (or have already seen) No Country for Old Men, don't bitch to me about the ending unless you're prepared for a lengthy conversation with the end result being me telling you that I respect your opinion but you're completely wrong.

Doubt I'll update again this week, so Happy St. Pat's day everyone and enjoy the Madness!

Working for the weekend

I got into Houston last Wednesday night at around 11:30, and got in a car with 2 zombies. This is a rough translation of the conversation that occurred.

“So how was opening day?”
“Mmmmmm . . .”
”Busy?”
“Lines out the door”
“Well, it’s good you’re busy at least. Any problems?”
“Well, we think we accidentally charged one lady $148 for her pizza, and then broke the credit card machine and could only take cash for a while.”
“Wow; do you have it all figured out now?”
“Yeah; now you’re here so you can deal with it”

I am told that the weather in Houston was nice while I was there. I wouldn’t really know, though, considering all I really saw of the city this trip was the inside of Windy City Pizza from 10:00 A.M. to 10: 00 P.M. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Givcn that I never had experienced the joy of working in the food service industry during my minimum wage teen years, this was altogether new for me. About the closest I came was working the concessions at a movie theatre during high school, but of course transactions are a lot simpler and the menu is a lot more limited. Plus, that was back in the cash-only days so it really was my first time dealing with a credit card machine. Overall, I’d say that the experience was a lot of fun but also that I was definitely ready to leave by Sunday.

We got to the pizza place at 10:00 on Thursday morning and that whole day was pretty slow. While not ideal from a profitability standpoint, it was perfect for me to be able to learn how to work the register without getting mobbed. Friday was significantly busier and then Saturday most of the day was crazy. Overall, between Wednesday and Saturday the place did a little over $2700 worth of business. That’s actually real impressive considering so far they have done exactly 0 advertising and thus the only customers have been people from the area that saw the sign and people who knew one us. Almost without exception, everybody that tried either the deep dish or thin crust said it was far and away the best pizza you can get in the area. I also had the following conversation with at least 15 initially skeptical people:

Them: So, real Chicago pizza huh?
Me: Yep
Them: OK, but I’m from Chicago. I’ll know.
Me: Well, I still live in Chicago and I guarantee that it is.

Then I left them to figure out why someone who lives in Chicago was working a cash register in Houston.

Some quirks about Houstonians. First, they want to order a ridiculous amount of toppings on their pizza. Like 5-6 toppings is not unusual, even if they’re just ordering a 10 or 12 inch pizza. I am told that this is because most of the pizza places have really bland crust, sauce, and cheese and thus they’ve become used to the fact that the only taste they will get from the pizza is from the toppings. Second, they love ground beef as a topping. Everytime I heard “I’d like a meat-lovers pizza, but instead of Italian sausage can I get ground beef” there was a part of me that wanted to reach across the counter and slap them. But, seeing as we’re not going for “The Wiener Circle” feel, I restrained myself. We also had to introduce the greater Houston area to Italian beef, because they have absolutely no idea what it is. It was a dead giveaway whenever someone ordered one that they were from Chicago. During the slower times we brought out some samples to people while they waited for the pizza and everyone said that was really good too. I guess the proof will show up in the number of sales over the next couple weeks.

Anyway, I think those were the highlights. Throughout the weekend, I tried almost every major item. The thin crust is excellent; both the sauce and the crust are extremely flavorful. I’ve been trying to think about which place it is most similar to, but so far I can’t place it.. The deep dish is also excellent and is actually very similar to Giordano’s. I also tried the Slider burgers, which taste almost exactly like White Castles, except thicker and without the holes in the meat. Finally, Saturday night I treated myself to a meat calzone, which I made myself. That was also good, but honestly after working for 12 hours just about anything would have tasted good so I am a little biased. My nightly routine after closing was to go home and have a couple beers and then collapse in bed around midnight. On Thursday night I laid down and saw that the UCLA game was on and had 90 seconds left in the 2nd half. I didn’t even make it to the end of the game. The final little kick in the teeth was Saturday night when I figured I’d finally get to catch up on sleep only to remember that it was daylight savings time day. I usually look forward to that day, but this year I really wouldn’t have minded at all if it had been at least a week later.

I did finally get a little chance to relax Sunday afternoon. A friend of my Ps was having a crawfish boil at their place so we went over there and I got to lay in the sun for a couple hours before I headed back to the arctic. I got to try crawfish for the first time too. For those that have never had the experience of attending a crawfish boil, it is pretty interesting. They line up about 5 or 6 picnic tables, cover them with tablecloths and paper, and then just dump literally thousands of steamed crawfish on top and everybody just digs in. If you can get past the fact that it’s just one small step above eating an insect, they are pretty tasty. Although the amount of work that you have to do to get just a tiny bit of meat makes it not really worth it, in my opinion. But I guess that’s what makes me a northerner.

In any case, the business is certainly off and running, and the place looks great! I’ve attached a few pictures below so you can get a sense for how they tried to bring a real Chicago feel to the place. I’d like to point out that it is my Kerry Wood jersey that can be seen framed in the dining room. Note that the pictures were taken before it opened, so that's why there are no customers.