Tinkers to Evers, any Chance?

“Winter, slumbering in the open air, wears on its smiling face a dream . . . of spring”
- Phil Connors
Groundhog Day

Most years by about late-July (or sometimes, like last year, much earlier) you can hear Cubs fans across the country utter the now-famous cliché “What till next year!” It is simultaneously an expression of both utter despair (because the season is over) and of defiant hope (because there will be another season and another chance). So here we the Cub faithful find ourselves yet again; at the start of another season daring to once again wonder if next year is finally here, or if this will be just another chapter in the same season that has gone on for the last 98 years. As of right now, Carlos Zambrano appears to be the only one claiming to know the answer to that one (http://tinyurl.com/25dev3).

I have often described being a Cubs fan as an illness or a disability (and I know my wife would agree). I’m not sure how I got it, I don’t ever remember not having it, and I know I’ll never be rid of it. One of the unique aspects of being a Cubs fan is that when you meet someone and find out they are also a fan you can say “I’m sorry to hear that” and more times than not they will not find it an odd comment or take offense at all. That just goes with the territory when your team has a bad century. You can also walk into Wrigley Field and almost immediately divide the crowd into one of the following 5 groups:

The Optimist – This person firmly believes before the start of every year that the Cubs are definitely winning the World Series this year. There is no doubt in their mind and they will probably accuse any fan who is not as optimistic as them as “not being a real fan.” When they are at a game, they will always be convinced that the Cubs will win today, even if they are behind 15-0 in the bottom of the ninth inning with 2 outs and Neifi Perez is batting with a broken arm and his shoelaces tied together against a 2003-version of Eric Gagne.

The Pessimist – This person is essentially a masochist. They expect horrible things to happen at any and all times and thus can never really enjoy the good moments because they are constantly waiting for the other shoe to drop. Yet they still will get very angry when misfortune does strike. Often, this is someone who used to be “The Optimist” until one day they just snapped.

The “Cubs Games Are Fun” Fan – The fact that there is a baseball game going on is incidental to these people. They have essentially paid a $20 - $50 cover charge to hang out, drink beer, and/or talk on their cell phone during the game. They are easily spotted when they give themselves away by cheering loudly during routine fly balls or occasionally cheering for the wrong team. About the only thing The Optimist and The Pessimist can agree on is that this type of fan is ruining the Cubs.

Sox Fans – Why do they come to Wrigley? Who knows, but they do. For some extremely strange reason there is a large contingent of Sox fans that follow the Cubs more closely than they do their own team, just so that they have the pleasure of rubbing it into the face of each and every Cub fan they see whenever something bad happens to the Cubs. Let me be clear that I am not generalizing about Sox fans here; just the ones that come to Wrigley (and not during the annual Cubs-Sox series). I’m talking about the Sox fans who, 5 minutes after their team won the World Series, decided that the best way to celebrate was to go onto various Cubs forums and message boards and rub it in. I don’t know why we are so important to them, but apparently we are.

The Die-Hard – This person knows the whole Cubs active roster, knows how they did yesterday, what time they play today, and who the starting pitchers are. At almost all times during the year could guess the batting average of almost every Cubs player within 20-30 points. Probably also knows what stats like VORP and PECOTA mean as well. Because they know so much about the team, they tend to be the most realistic of all the fans. They do not expect a career .200 hitter to suddenly hit .300 like the Optimist, nor do they expect the Cubs starting pitcher’s arm to fall off at any given moment like the Pessimist. It should be noted here that the Pessimists and Sox fans have scored decisive victories in recent years in the cases of Kerry Wood and Mark Prior.

As you probably have guessed I see myself as part of the last category, although at various times I have dipped in the other ones as well (except for the Sox fan). Most years I start out a little more optimistic than is usually warranted, and by August I’m convinced they’ll never win another game, and if I have any tickets remaining in those years I’m likely to go to the game and not care too much about it. But I try to stay on a pretty even keel. While the season is still competitive I’ll be pissed for about an hour after they lose a game, more if they lose in a particularly nasty way. And on days when they win, no matter what else bad happens to me that day I know I will go to bed that night thinking “at least the Cubs won today.”

In any case, with that as a backdrop I present my preview of the 2007 Cubs:

Starting rotation:
Carlos Zambrano (R)
Ted Lilly (L)
Jason Marquis (R)
Rich Hill (L)
Wade Miller (R)

For the first year in the last 5, the Cubs go into a season without expecting the names Wood or Prior to appear here. Which is good, considering they are once again hurt and/or pitching terribly. Big Z is obviously the ace and anchor of the rotation, and the Cubs can’t hope to make any kind of playoff push unless he wins around 18 games and has a sub-3.50 ERA. I think this is the year he finally turns the corner and becomes one of the games elite pitchers.

Honestly, overall I’m pretty happy with 4/5 of this group with Jason Marquis and his ridiculously high ERA and even more ridiculously priced contract being the lone exception. I especially don’t see him as a #3 starter, but after a couple turns through the rotation it shouldn’t really matter. The thing that really bothers me about his contract is that he will be given a longer leash than he deserves because no one wants $7 million per year rotting away at AAA. Supposedly the Cubs pursued him because they spotted a flaw in his delivery that they believe they have now corrected, but from what I’ve seen so far this spring he looks like the same old pitcher I’ve seen before. I’m thinking he will end up with 4-5 really good games, 4-5 really horrible games, and about 15-20 games where he does something like give up 4-5 runs in 5-6 innings. He may end up with around a .500 record if he gets bailed out enough by the Cubs offense.

But enough bitching. The guy to get really excited about in this list is Rich Hill. If you didn’t watch the Cubs past June last year (and there really wasn’t much reason to) you would be forgiven for not understanding what reason there is to be excited about him. After all, a combined 6-7 record with a 4.17 ERA doesn’t exactly scream “excitement.” But the key is to look at the story behind the numbers. Hill is still a pretty young guy (just turned 27 this month) and last year was his first real season in the majors. His inexperience really showed early as he compiled an 0-4 record with a 9.31 ERA in his first 4 starts before being sent down to Iowa. About the only memorable thing he did in the early part of the year was get himself blasted by Ozzie for criticizing Pierzynski after his brief impromptu boxing match with Michael Barrett. But after Hill got sent down he got really focused and started kicking ass at Iowa and just kept doing it once he made it back up again, this time going 6-3 with a 2.93 ERA in his final 12 starts. There always seems to be a big leap for young pitchers when they first get called up. They seem to be too excited about finally “making it” (not that I blame them) and aren’t able to execute the little things that got them there in the first place. It seems that it takes them experiencing failure (many for the first time in their lives) before they get that chip on their shoulder and want to prove to themselves and everyone else that they belong here. I look at Hill now and I can’t help but think about Zambrano. I was at the double-header in 2001 when Z made his major league debut. He got shelled. 2002 was his first “real” season in the big leagues and he was very hit and miss with a 4-8 record and a 3.66 ERA but showed off a lot of his potential. By 2003, it was obvious that he was a major league pitcher as he went 13-11 with a 3.11 ERA and helped the Cubs reach the playoffs. I see the same kind of thing for Hill in this his second “real” year. I project him to be around the 13 win mark with an ERA in the mid to high 3s. 15 wins is a stretch but is not out of the question.

Just a couple quick thoughts on the other two starters. For me the jury is still out on Lilly. I’m hoping he experiences the same success that other starters have experienced in moving from the AL to NL but only time will tell. He has the potential to work out extremely well or to be a complete disaster. And finally the best word for Miller is “serviceable”. Provided his injury woes are behind him, he should take the hill every 5th day and keep the Cubs in the game through the first 5 innings, which is exactly what you want out of your #5 starter.

Bullpen –
Bob Howry (R)
Ryan Dempster (R)
Michael Wuertz (R)
Angel Guzman (R)
Scott Eyre (L)
Will Ohman (L)
Neil Cotts (L)

Not much to say here, since little has changed since last year. That’s actually a good thing since for once the Cubs had one of the better bullpens in the league. That doesn’t include the closer role, as Dempster had an awful year (9 blown saves in 33 opportunities, 1-9 with a 4.80 ERA). While I don’t excuse his performance, it certainly wasn’t helped by the fact that the Cubs were able to get him opportunities maybe once or twice a week at most. Howry, Wuertz, Eyre, and Ohman all had solid years last year and I expect them to do so again. New addition Neil Cotts I have not at all been impressed with; he was outstanding for the Sox in 2005 and absolutely abysmal for them last year. So far he looks more like last year’s version, but given that the Cubs have 2 other solid lefties to turn to it shouldn’t be that big of a deal. The other addition is one-time uber prospect Angel Guzman, who is still projected to be an eventual major league starter. He will fill the long relief role to start the year and will probably also be the first to step into the rotation should anyone go down (and since this is the Cubs, you know someone will. Damn, there’s the Pessimist in me coming out).

One final note is that the astute of you may have noticed the lack of mention of Kerry Wood in the above. As of yesterday he will officially begin the year on the DL (surprise, surprise) and no one knows when he will possibly be ready to pitch in the majors again. As far as I’m concerned, he doesn’t exist for the Cubs right now. If he ever gets over his plethora of arm issues and comes back looking anything like his former self, that would be fantastic. But at this point I’ve got to view the odds of that happening as being only slightly higher than Illinois getting into a BCS bowl game next year. Anyone want to buy a used Kerry Wood jersey?

Infield –
Michael Barrett (C)
Derek Lee (1B)
Mark DeRosa (2B)
Cesar Izturis (SS)
Aramis Ramirez (3B)

I can’t possibly express how ecstatic I am that the name “Neifi Perez” no longer appears in the above list. Addition by subtraction if ever there was a case. I actually won’t say much about Derek Lee and Aramis Ramirez. Good years from them are expected and will be absolutely essential for the Cubs to have any form of success. Lee’s looked great so far this spring and shows no lingering ill effects from his wrist injury last year. Michael Barrett is as solid as they come as a catcher from an offensive standpoint, provided he has also recovered from his injury (if you don’t remember what his injury was, click here and prepare to wince http://tinyurl.com/yryr57). Last year mid-season addition Cesar Izturis will be the man at SS this year. He is generally light hitting but a gold glove caliber defender. As long as he hits in the 8-hole and gets his career average (.259) I’ll take it.

That leaves the only bona fide newcomer of the group in Mark Derosa, and he is the x-factor. The Cubs signed him to a larger-than-expected contract (a trend they continued throughout the off-season) to be the starting second baseman. He has generally been a part-time utility player for most of his career before having a very nice year with Texas last year. The question is whether the player the Cubs got is going to be who he was last year (AVG/OBP/SLG of .296/.357/.456) or the player he has been over the course of his career (.273/.331/.404). The former will make it a decent deal for the Cubs; the latter will make it close to a disaster. The good news is that he just turned 32 last month, so he should still be in his prime. I think he will end up closer to last year’s numbers than his career ones, and it will turn out that the Cubs overpaid for an average to slightly above-average player. Considering the Cubs past history of horrid contracts ($24 million for Todd Hundley comes to mind) that would actually be a pretty good outcome.

Outfield –
Alfonso Soriano (CF)
Jacque Jones (RF)
Matt Murton (LF)
Cliff Floyd (LF)

And now we come to the $136 million dollar man, Alfonso Soriano. Will he be worth that obscene amount of money? Hell no! Because no one is worth that money! In the best case scenario the Cubs will get 3-4 good years out of him and then manage to trade him to some team that’s desperate at the trade deadline. Worst case scenario is he becomes mired in mediocrity from the get-go and thus becomes untradeable and an albatross on the Cubs payroll for the next decade. Regardless of the long-term implications, it certainly is exciting to have a player of his caliber on this year’s team, even if the Cubs are forcing him to learn his 2nd new position in as many years.

In almost every way, Soriano is the opposite of last year’s CF Juan Pierre. Pierre hits mainly singles (only 47 of his 204 hits were for extra bases last year), hardly ever strikes out, plays gold-glove caliber defense, and homers about as often as we in the northern hemisphere witness a lunar eclipse (12 total HRs in his career, which dates back to 2000). Soriano, on the other hand, has half of his hits go for extra bases (89 out of 179 last year), will strike out quite frequently as well as butcher balls in CF, but also has averaged 35 HRs per year over the last 5 years (and hit 46 last year). For similarities, both are leadoff hitters with good speed (Soriano had 41 SBs last year; Pierre had 58).

I want to make it clear that overall I am much happier with the composition of the OF this year versus last, with one caveat. This defense is going to be terrifyingly bad to start the year; especially on days when Cliff Floyd starts over Murton. I don’t blame Soriano for struggling in the field. He only has one year of OF under his belt and is already being asked to switch positions. With his speed I think he will eventually turn into a solid if not spectacular CF but there will most definitely be growing pains that will cause great wailing and gnashing of teeth amongst the Wrigley faithful.

Cliff Floyd, on the other hand, really is a first class butcher in the outfield. There have been questions (and almost certainly there will be more over the next couple months) about why Floyd chose the Cubs (and vice versa) when at this point in his career he is clearly better suited to DH in the AL, but that’s irrelevant right now. To be sure, Floyd can most definitely still hit, and it is my hope that we will see him mainly in a PH role this year, but that will probably be determined by 1) his health (he had surgery on his heel in the off-season) and 2) how Murton plays.

Speaking of Murton, he himself is no wizard in the field but is not all that much of a liability either and I am excited about him this year. He was one of the few bright spots for the Cubs last season, finishing with a .297 average and .365 OBP. While the knock on him was his lack of power (only 13 HRs from a left fielder, which is typically a power position), he actually improved on that quite a bit in the second half of the year (.379 SLG prior to the All Star break, .522 afterwards). If Murton gets the majority of the playing time, I think he can hit .280 this year with over 20 HRs, and I have no problem with that. That just leaves Jacque Jones, and there’s not much to say about him. You pretty much know what you’re getting: a guy with power who strikes out a lot. He actually had a very nice year last year and, although I was one of those that severely criticized Hendry for signing him, I really think he got a raw deal from Cubs fans and deserved better. I hope he gets it this year. All in all, this is a very solid OF offensively, and a very bad OF defensively. All we can hope is that they hit in more than they let in, as they say.

Bench
Daryle Ward
Ronny Cedeno
Henry Blanco
Ryan Theriot
Murton or Floyd (whoever doesn’t start)

I actually am quite pleased with the Cubs bench this season, even if it does contain two players (Ward and Floyd) who are next to worthless in the field. Ward was an underrated pickup for the Cubs this year. He is a niche player that has stuck around in the majors by developing into a PH specialist. In 62 Abs last year as a PH, he hit .355 with a .674 SLG. That’s a real good option to bring in off the bench in clutch situations late in the game. Ryan Theriot will play the role of the super-sub this year, and I’m pretty excited about him too. I don’t think he will ever become a starter in the majors, but I see him having a long career anyway due to his speed and versatility as long as he can keep the average up. Cedeno was a big disappointment last year as the starting SS, and now he sees himself relegated to the bench behind Izturis. Having to fight for a roster spot this spring really seems to have lit a fire under him, and he seems to have turned a corner. He’s already walked 11 times this spring (in 55 Abs) after only walking 17 times during the entire season last year (in 524 ABs). And the fact that his spring average is .327 (versus the .245 he hit last year) means that he’s not just being more patient, he’s seeing the ball better. As always though, spring training is one thing, and he’s gonna have to prove it during the season. Still, having him waiting in the wings should push Izturis, and that can only help the Cubs. Henry Blanco (aka Hank White) is the Cubs backup catcher. There, that fulfills my obligation to say something about him.

Manager
Lou Piniella

Many would say that the removal of Dusty Baker was the best move the Cubs made in the off-season, and I wouldn’t necessarily disagree. I think that in general the effect a manager has on his team, while important, is vastly overrated by fans. Still, it has been truly refreshing this spring to not have to worry about cringing at the truly ignorant things that would come out of Dusty Baker’s mouth (example “Walks help. They do help. But you aren't going to walk across the plate, you're going to hit across the plate.”). By all accounts, Big Lou has run a solid spring camp and it is probably the most positive camp the Cubs have had in the last 3-4 years. Lou also got me even more optimistic about him when he just announced the opening day starting lineup and has Murton hitting 2nd (and Izturis 8th). I also really look forward to seeing him kick dirt on the umpires and get tossed from a few games. I know that’s not always productive, but I figure since Cubs fans are so passionate we ought to have a manager who’s passionate as well. Overall, I don’t think Lou is the savior, but I also think he is a great improvement over his predecessor and I am optimistic that I won’t have to witness bizarre late inning substitutions (i.e. double-switching for no reason aka the Dusty Baker special) or just flat out bringing in the wrong pitcher in a given situation. I just hope Lou is enjoying his honeymoon period, because as Jacque Jones and Dusty Baker can tell you, this town can turn on you in a hurry.

Final Thoughts
So with all that being said, how is this going to translate into Ws and Ls? Well, your guess is as good as mine (though I like to think mine’s better). The Optimist in me says that the Cubs have all the pieces in place to make a charge for the division and a deep run in the playoffs. The Pessimist in me says that the starting rotation is lackluster at best and the OF may set a new record for errors. Then there is another part of me that is so sick to death of this Chicago winter that I am just looking forward to drinking beer in the sun at Wrigley. So what does the Die-Hard fan in me say? Well, he says that there is a case to be made that the Cubs will win 90, and a case to be made that they will lose 90. So where does that leave me? Eh, what the hell; I’m feeling optimistic today.

The Cubs will win 92 games, then end 98 years of futility, the billygoat curse, and the memories of Durham and Bartman by marching through the playoffs and capturing the World Series.

(Are you really surprised?)