Just another brief update to say that I took the 2nd part of the CPA on Monday. It went . . .eh, we'll see. The multiple choice went really well, but then there were two simulations and they went . . . less well. I looked it up yesterday and was pleased to see that it is weighted 70% for the multiple choice and 30% for the simulations so unless I totally bombed the sims or completely misjudged my multiple choice performance I should be ok. Probably give it 60/40 that I passed but I wouldn't be at all stunned if I didn't.
Already started studying for the next exam (T-minus 33 days and counting), which again will probably occur right after I find out the score from the last one. I have been getting progressively better about my study habits but I still have a ways to go. I thought that I was fairly on top of things with the last section by studying 1-2 hours a day until the last weekend but I ended up doing a lot more hardcore cramming than I ever planned on. I nearly pulled an all-nighter on Sunday night (went to bed at just before 3 and woke up at 6:45 to start studying again). Reminded me of my college days (in a very different way than what usually reminds me of them).
In other news, it looks like I will be heading down to Houston next week for the grand opening of my family's new Chicago-style pizza restaurant (Windy City Pizza)! The opening has been tentative for a while now as one beaureaucratic thing after another kept popping up and so they weren't able to hire people since they didn't know exactly when they'd be starting. Couple that with the fact that they have been getting bombarded with questions about when they are opening and they are worried about not having enough help for opening weekend. So even though I know absolutely nothing about making pizzas I will be heading down to lend a hand wherever I can. I have informed them that I actually do have a lot of expertise in eating pizza; not sure how that helps but it is part of my skillset. Opening day is next Wednesday (March 5th) and I fly in that night. I have already been informed that I'm being written up for missing the first day. However, I have been given assurance that as long as I am working for free, I can get written up lots of times before being dismissed. Anyway, I have been told that Chicago is a little outside of their delivery area, but if your travels ever take you to the greater Houston area be sure to stop in to get a taste of home!
Wednesday, February 27, 2008
Tuesday, February 19, 2008
One Down (Definitely), Three to Go
Just a quick update to say that I officially passed the first part of the CPA. I am currently immersed in the wonderful world of corporate tax rules as I await the returns of the Wisconsin and Hawaii primaries. Hopefully, all of you are having more fun than me tonight.
Christy and I went to see Rent this past weekend and neither of us were impressed. I didn't expect to be but Christy had been looking forward to it so she was disappointed. The play has been running for over 10 years now and it shows every bit of its age. Maybe I would have liked it more had I seen it on its first or second run; who knows. I can see how the fact that it uses "rock" music might appeal to people who don't normally like musicals, but if that's what you're looking for do yourself a favor and just go buy "Tommy" by the Who and listen to that instead. That's one piece that hasn't lost anything despite being over 30 years old. I seriously doubt Rent will still be touring in 2025. Of course, I've been wrong before.
Christy and I went to see Rent this past weekend and neither of us were impressed. I didn't expect to be but Christy had been looking forward to it so she was disappointed. The play has been running for over 10 years now and it shows every bit of its age. Maybe I would have liked it more had I seen it on its first or second run; who knows. I can see how the fact that it uses "rock" music might appeal to people who don't normally like musicals, but if that's what you're looking for do yourself a favor and just go buy "Tommy" by the Who and listen to that instead. That's one piece that hasn't lost anything despite being over 30 years old. I seriously doubt Rent will still be touring in 2025. Of course, I've been wrong before.
Wednesday, February 13, 2008
A Perfect Storm?
I have forever lamented the fact that we have a two-party system in this country. It’s unfortunate not only because of the obvious problem of a lack of choices, but also because it diminishes the quality of the candidates as they are forced to try and cover an impossible amount of ideology to maintain their base. Run as a centrist Republican and the religious right will alienate you; run as a left-wing Democrat and the libertarians and independents will abandon you. I have always thought that if we injected a viable third-party into the mix that it would force candidates to carve out distinct positions rather than simply allowing themselves to be categorized as “left” or “right”. However, the more I’ve thought about it recently the more I’m realizing that there will never be a viable third-party (at least for the foreseeable future in this country). The reason is that whatever ideological side of the center a new party comes up on will just split the votes for that side’s existing party and give victory to the other side (e.g. Nader taking votes from the Democrats and Gore in 2000 and Perot taking votes from Republicans and Bush in 92 and Dole in 96). Hence, if we are ever to expand our current field of parties it is likely that we would need the introduction of 2 new parties (one leftist and one rightist) at once to even things out.
At this point though, the logistics of doing so appear extremely daunting. In general, the commitment of the American people to politics is tenuous at best. Even now, when political involvement is at the peak that it’s been in my lifetime, we’re still not even getting half the voting population out to vote in the primaries. Hence, the prospect of actually being able to get enough will and ambition together to start two new parties while still maintaining our current two seems very unlikely. In fact, it would take a set of circumstances so unlikely that for all statistical purposes it has rightfully been discounted as impossible. However, I believe that the conditions for such a perfect storm actually exist now for this to happen.
Before I get into the details, I want to make it abundantly clear that I do not see this as anything more than a remote possibility. However, it is more likely to happen now than at any other point in my life, and I can’t imagine a confluence of forces such as this ever occurring again.
As it stands today, we have a Republican race that has been unhappily decided and a Democratic race that is happily undecided. What I mean is that there are a lot of Republicans who are still trying to figure out just how the hell John McCain came back from the brink of bankruptcy and complete campaign chaos to “steal” the nomination. They are not excited about him, and the recent “protest” votes for Huckabee (even though the end result is all but certain) are a good indicator of that. This is really not surprising, given the wide gulf in beliefs between traditional conservatives and the religious right. In fact, it’s a minor miracle that these two groups have managed to co-exist in the same party for this long. You would not think that a group who has always believed that government should have an extremely limited role in the lives of citizens would be partnered with a group who wants to model the Constitution after the bible. On the other hand, there is more enthusiasm on the Democratic side than there has been since probably 1960 even though to this point we have a statistical dead heat between the candidates. It would seem that no matter what, the Democrats will be heading into the general election with a full head of steam towards the White House.
That is probably the most likely scenario and may very well be what ends up happening. However, let me propose a not entirely far-fetched scenario for you. Imagine that going into the convention Obama has won the popular vote and holds more pledged delegates but not enough for the nomination. Then, in a series of back-room deals that no one really understands you end up with Clinton as the nominee. Suddenly there’s a whole group of Obama supporters who thought their candidate won the nomination but now they’re seeing him shut out. They’re pissed off and probably aren’t going to be too excited about the prospect of getting behind Hillary. On the other side, as already mentioned McCain has some problems with his base. Let’s assume that the party as a whole is still very lackluster about him. The religious right and hardcore conservatives are desperate to get excited about someone else, if only there was another choice. They say that politics make for strange bedfellows, so how about this possibility? Someone representing the religious right (like Huckabee) calls up Obama and says “I’m not happy with my party right now and I know you’re not happy. I’m thinking of running as an independent but if I do that I might as well give the presidency to Clinton. But what if we both run as independents? That way voters in both parties will have two viable candidates to choose from.”
Again, I want to stress how remote a possibility I consider this, but it is very intriguing all the same especially given some of the results we’ve seen in the primaries. For instance look at Virginia, which has been a red state in every presidential election since 1964. Yesterday McCain carried it over Huckabee 50-41, but Obama carried it over Clinton 64-35. That means that if that split holds, even if 55% vote for some combination of McCain/Huckabee, and only 45% vote for Obama/Clinton, Obama would carry the state. That means that a lot of the traditional “this state is definitely red; this state is definitely blue” would be called into question and would require a completely different campaign strategy. And it would be a relief to for once see at least some candidates fighting to position themselves in the center to please the independents and moderates instead of fighting to go more left or more right to please the fringes. Perhaps more importantly, it might finally force a general election to be about “these are the good things I stand for and vote for me because of them” instead of “this is the bad thing my opponent stands for and vote for me because I’m not him.” Of course, even in my proposed scenario I'm still making the enormous leap in logic that the candidates running as independents would have an earnest desire to start and maintain a separate party instead of just running as a one-off like Perot or Nader (ok, I guess they are both technically two-offs).
Of course, all this will be completely moot if Obama just keeps on winning, and as much as I’d like to see an expansion of the two-party system, I think I’d like to see that more.
At this point though, the logistics of doing so appear extremely daunting. In general, the commitment of the American people to politics is tenuous at best. Even now, when political involvement is at the peak that it’s been in my lifetime, we’re still not even getting half the voting population out to vote in the primaries. Hence, the prospect of actually being able to get enough will and ambition together to start two new parties while still maintaining our current two seems very unlikely. In fact, it would take a set of circumstances so unlikely that for all statistical purposes it has rightfully been discounted as impossible. However, I believe that the conditions for such a perfect storm actually exist now for this to happen.
Before I get into the details, I want to make it abundantly clear that I do not see this as anything more than a remote possibility. However, it is more likely to happen now than at any other point in my life, and I can’t imagine a confluence of forces such as this ever occurring again.
As it stands today, we have a Republican race that has been unhappily decided and a Democratic race that is happily undecided. What I mean is that there are a lot of Republicans who are still trying to figure out just how the hell John McCain came back from the brink of bankruptcy and complete campaign chaos to “steal” the nomination. They are not excited about him, and the recent “protest” votes for Huckabee (even though the end result is all but certain) are a good indicator of that. This is really not surprising, given the wide gulf in beliefs between traditional conservatives and the religious right. In fact, it’s a minor miracle that these two groups have managed to co-exist in the same party for this long. You would not think that a group who has always believed that government should have an extremely limited role in the lives of citizens would be partnered with a group who wants to model the Constitution after the bible. On the other hand, there is more enthusiasm on the Democratic side than there has been since probably 1960 even though to this point we have a statistical dead heat between the candidates. It would seem that no matter what, the Democrats will be heading into the general election with a full head of steam towards the White House.
That is probably the most likely scenario and may very well be what ends up happening. However, let me propose a not entirely far-fetched scenario for you. Imagine that going into the convention Obama has won the popular vote and holds more pledged delegates but not enough for the nomination. Then, in a series of back-room deals that no one really understands you end up with Clinton as the nominee. Suddenly there’s a whole group of Obama supporters who thought their candidate won the nomination but now they’re seeing him shut out. They’re pissed off and probably aren’t going to be too excited about the prospect of getting behind Hillary. On the other side, as already mentioned McCain has some problems with his base. Let’s assume that the party as a whole is still very lackluster about him. The religious right and hardcore conservatives are desperate to get excited about someone else, if only there was another choice. They say that politics make for strange bedfellows, so how about this possibility? Someone representing the religious right (like Huckabee) calls up Obama and says “I’m not happy with my party right now and I know you’re not happy. I’m thinking of running as an independent but if I do that I might as well give the presidency to Clinton. But what if we both run as independents? That way voters in both parties will have two viable candidates to choose from.”
Again, I want to stress how remote a possibility I consider this, but it is very intriguing all the same especially given some of the results we’ve seen in the primaries. For instance look at Virginia, which has been a red state in every presidential election since 1964. Yesterday McCain carried it over Huckabee 50-41, but Obama carried it over Clinton 64-35. That means that if that split holds, even if 55% vote for some combination of McCain/Huckabee, and only 45% vote for Obama/Clinton, Obama would carry the state. That means that a lot of the traditional “this state is definitely red; this state is definitely blue” would be called into question and would require a completely different campaign strategy. And it would be a relief to for once see at least some candidates fighting to position themselves in the center to please the independents and moderates instead of fighting to go more left or more right to please the fringes. Perhaps more importantly, it might finally force a general election to be about “these are the good things I stand for and vote for me because of them” instead of “this is the bad thing my opponent stands for and vote for me because I’m not him.” Of course, even in my proposed scenario I'm still making the enormous leap in logic that the candidates running as independents would have an earnest desire to start and maintain a separate party instead of just running as a one-off like Perot or Nader (ok, I guess they are both technically two-offs).
Of course, all this will be completely moot if Obama just keeps on winning, and as much as I’d like to see an expansion of the two-party system, I think I’d like to see that more.
Thursday, February 07, 2008
One Down (maybe), Three to Go
So I had the distinct pleasure of taking the first part of the CPA exam back on the 28th. I would classify my outlook as "cautiously optimistic", which is probably the best you can ever really feel after one of those. There wasn't anything on there that I looked at and thought "Good god, I have absolutely NO idea!" but then there were a lot of questions where half-way through reading it I was like "Oh, I know this one" but then I'd read through the answers and not like any of them or I'd like 2 of them. I also was a bit concerned because I heard that depending on how well you do in each section they adjust it to make it easier or harder in subsequent sections. Well, it definitely seemed to me like sections 2 and 3 were easier than #1, but maybe that was just my perception. Going in I felt like there was a lot of stuff that I still didn't know very well, but after taking it there was actually a lot more that I did know that they never asked about . I was also suprised that it was about 2/3 conceptual and 1/3 computational and I was expecting the opposite. Overall, it was easier than I thought it was going to be but I still give it a decent chance that I didn't pass (I'd put the odds at about 66-33 in favor of me passing). I am supposed to find out by February 18th at the latest, which is just 7 days before my next exam. Either it will be a very nice boost for me to study a lot the last week, or it will be crushingly demoralizing.
In events not directly related to my life it's been a pretty exciting week. Wow, what a Super Bowl! Probably the most exciting one I've ever seen (not including the 2 the Bears were in, which were obviously more exciting to me but not purely as games by themselves). Certainly right up there with the Packers-Broncos game in 98. There was a period from about the mid-80s to the late 90s where about 80-90% of the Super Bowls were extremely boring blowouts and it's good to see that by and large that hasn't been the case the last 10 years. It's such a letdown when you have 2 weeks of hype and then the game's over by halftime. Especially since it's 7 long months till the next meaningful football game.
Then, of course, there was Super Tuesday. Obviously, not everyone's going to agree with me, but I was absolutely thrilled with the outcome. The only thing that was slightly disappointing was Barack's mediocre performance in California (no love from the asians and latinos) but to come out with (probably) more delegates than Clinton on the night and with all the momentum in the world bodes extremely well for him. Tuesday also marked the first time I have ever walked into a polling place and had to utter the word "Democrat" when they asked which ballot I wanted. Even though I am a strong Obama supporter, it was still very uncomfortable to utter. Anyway, I am also extremely thrilled that the Republican nomination is all but sewn up for McCain. I probably would vote for Obama over McCain, but it would be very close and I could easily see myself changing my mind by the general election. However, I would just be extremely excited to have the dilemma of choosing between two candidates that I really like. Even though Obama has a lot of momentum, my inherent distrust in the competence of the DNC makes me extremely leary that they are going to royally screw this process up assuming (as is likely) that no one gets the required number of delegates by the convention. The talk of "brokering a deal" (as Howard Dean, the chairman of the DNC, has suggested) or all of a sudden deciding to count the Florida and Michigan delegates (as a lot of political pundits have predicted) is sickening to hear. Either one of those would be enough to get people so disgusted with the Democratic party that you might as well just hold McCain's inauguration at the Democratic National Convention. Personally, assuming that neither candidate earns the required number of delegates, I think the only fair thing to do is give it to the candidate who won the overall popular vote (not counting Florida and Michigan, since candidates were not allowed to campaign there).
I think that's all the thoughts I have for today. On tap this weekend is once again more CPA studying and then a curling double-header on Sunday. I lead an exciting life, I know . . .
In events not directly related to my life it's been a pretty exciting week. Wow, what a Super Bowl! Probably the most exciting one I've ever seen (not including the 2 the Bears were in, which were obviously more exciting to me but not purely as games by themselves). Certainly right up there with the Packers-Broncos game in 98. There was a period from about the mid-80s to the late 90s where about 80-90% of the Super Bowls were extremely boring blowouts and it's good to see that by and large that hasn't been the case the last 10 years. It's such a letdown when you have 2 weeks of hype and then the game's over by halftime. Especially since it's 7 long months till the next meaningful football game.
Then, of course, there was Super Tuesday. Obviously, not everyone's going to agree with me, but I was absolutely thrilled with the outcome. The only thing that was slightly disappointing was Barack's mediocre performance in California (no love from the asians and latinos) but to come out with (probably) more delegates than Clinton on the night and with all the momentum in the world bodes extremely well for him. Tuesday also marked the first time I have ever walked into a polling place and had to utter the word "Democrat" when they asked which ballot I wanted. Even though I am a strong Obama supporter, it was still very uncomfortable to utter. Anyway, I am also extremely thrilled that the Republican nomination is all but sewn up for McCain. I probably would vote for Obama over McCain, but it would be very close and I could easily see myself changing my mind by the general election. However, I would just be extremely excited to have the dilemma of choosing between two candidates that I really like. Even though Obama has a lot of momentum, my inherent distrust in the competence of the DNC makes me extremely leary that they are going to royally screw this process up assuming (as is likely) that no one gets the required number of delegates by the convention. The talk of "brokering a deal" (as Howard Dean, the chairman of the DNC, has suggested) or all of a sudden deciding to count the Florida and Michigan delegates (as a lot of political pundits have predicted) is sickening to hear. Either one of those would be enough to get people so disgusted with the Democratic party that you might as well just hold McCain's inauguration at the Democratic National Convention. Personally, assuming that neither candidate earns the required number of delegates, I think the only fair thing to do is give it to the candidate who won the overall popular vote (not counting Florida and Michigan, since candidates were not allowed to campaign there).
I think that's all the thoughts I have for today. On tap this weekend is once again more CPA studying and then a curling double-header on Sunday. I lead an exciting life, I know . . .
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