2008 Cubs Season Preview

The Shamrock Shuffle 8k was today and boy what a wonderful day for a race! 39 degrees with a wind and a slight drizzle. It was actually not bad during the race but before and then especially after were pretty brutal. Nevertheless, I actually did pretty good, especially considering I haven't run at all in about a month. I decided beforehand that as long as I finished in under an hour I would be happy. Well, I ended up doing quite a bit better than that, finishing in 49:56. That works out to just a little over 10:20/mile. Although fairly short, this race also has the distinction of being the longest race I have ever run without stopping to walk at all. I'm probably going to do a 10k in a month or two and I'll hope to set a new personal best there too. The overall goal for me will be to be able to run the half-marathon in August without stopping. And before anyone asks, no I absolutely have not changed my mind and decided to run another full marathon! Last year was, and forever will be, a one shot deal! Another first for today was Christy running her first race ever. Congratulations dear! Up next for us is the "Race to Wrigley" in two weeks, which is just a short 5k that starts and ends at Wrigley Field. I'll be looking to finish in under 30 mins in that one.

Anyway, as promised I'll get on with my probably-not-at-all anticipated preview of the 2008 Cubs. This one won't be as lengthy as last year's, partially because I don't feel like it and partially because there haven't been all that many changes from last year.

It has been 100 years since the Cubs last won the World Series. From reading other season previews, it appears that it is a requirement to mention this when previewing the Cubs and I have now fulfilled my obligation to do so.

Outfield
Alfonso Soriano - LF
Felix Pie - CF
Kosuke Fukodome - RF

This is probably the biggest change from last year. Last March, it looked like the Cubs might have quite possibly one of the worst defensive outfields of all time, and now it looks like they may have the best in the NL. All three outfielders have absolute cannons for arms and I don't think the opposition will be testing them much after the first month of the year. The only shortcoming is Soriano's less than stellar jumps he gets on balls, but this is far less an issue now that he will be permanently in left field instead of the ill-fated center field experiment from last year. Offensively, this group is more of a question mark. While it's pretty clear Soriano will hit, he's made mention of the fact that he's still not psychologically ready to test his injured hamstring 100% and if his base-stealing ability is hampered that's a sizeable loss from his game. Fukodome, the Cub's biggest free agent signing during the offseason, is playing in the majors for the first time and it's anyone's guess how well he will make the transition. He has a great eye for the strike zone, though, so even if he struggles with hits the OBP should still be respectable. Finally Felix Pie, the latest "next big thing" from the Cubs minor league system, finally gets his shot this year. He's a great talent and has had a really good spring, but Cubs fans still haven't gotten over the hype and disappointment surrounding Corey Patterson and that is tempering the excitement somewhat. It's not fair to hold Pie responsible for that but that doesn't change things.

Infield
Derek Lee - 1B
Mark DeRosa - 2B
Ryan Theriot - SS
Aramis Ramirez - 3B
Geovany Soto - C

The most notable thing about this is who is NOT included here, as 4 months of Brian Roberts to the Cubs rumors have apparently all been for naught, and the Cubs will go into the year with the same starters here as from last year. Theriot is clearly the weak link here, but apart from a horrendous September he put up decent numbers last year. I'm willing to chalk that up to him tiring and I don't think it's unreasonable to expect average numbers from him (maybe .275/.330 AVG/OBP). Still, I don't think he'll be the make or break player for the Cubs. If he is the worst hitter on the team this year, they'll be fine. Lee, DeRosa, and Ramirez are, well, Lee, DeRosa, and Ramirez. They're all veterans at this point and they can all be penciled in to achieve approximately their career averages. Soto is the question mark here. He hit the cover off the ball last September and in the playoffs, but came into spring apparently overweight and has underwhelmed in March. Hopefully, he can turn it on starting tomorrow. Defense is solid at all positions.

Starting Pitching
Carlos Zambrano
Ted Lilly
Rich Hill
Jason Marquis
Ryan Dempster

Here you've got Dempster coming out of the bullpen taking Sean Marshall's place but other than that it's again the same as last year (which is a good thing). I expect Dempster to be serviceable in general but get absolutely shelled one out of every 5 times out. I expect Marquis to start strong and then fade after the all-star break. I expect Rich Hill to take the next step towards becoming a dominant pitcher in the NL. I expect Lilly to regress from his very good year last season but still put up good numbers. Finally, as has been the case for the past 3 years, I expect Zambrano to finally stop his inconsistency and become one of the elite pitchers in the game.

Bullpen
Michael Wuertz
Carlos Marmol
Jon Lieber
Kevin Hart
Carmen Pignatiello
Bob Howry
Kerry Wood - Closer

Apart from the uncertainty surrounding Wood transitioning to the closer role, this should just flat out be the best bullpen in the NL. The Cubs should not lose many games that they are leading after 6.

Bench
Darryl Ward
Ronny Cedeno
Henry Blanco
Mike Fontenot
Reed Johnson

Ward should continue to be one of the best pinch hitters in the game. Other than that, this is a serviceable but unspectacular bench. No automatic outs, but no one that gets you excited either. Murton got caught in a roster crunch when the Cubs signed Reed Johnson. Hopefully Reed and his ridiculous goatee will prove to be worth it. While I understand Hendry's desire to do the right thing for Murton by trading him to a place where he'll have the opportunity to play every day, I am really hoping he keeps him around to potentially include in a trade near the All-Star break.

So, overall the Cubs improved a little bit from last year. Well, at least on paper they did. However, they've also had exactly 2 back to back winning seasons in the last 35 years and they had a winning season last year so who knows. It's nice to go into a season where you don't have to root for absolutely everything to go your way in order to be competitive. For all the slack Hendry gets (much of it deserved) I think he's done a real nice job in the past couple years stocking the farm system with near major league ready talent. If someone goes down or severely underperforms, I'm confident that he has the pieces to either fill the hole in house or use them as chips in a trade.

Prediction: 91 wins and back-to-back Central division crowns!!!! However, my reckless prediction at the beginning of last year notwithstanding, I'm going to refrain from predicting their fate in the playoffs. That time of the year it is all about matchups and momentum that it's just completely baseless speculation to predict now. All I'll say is that the Cubs can go toe to toe with anyone in the NL. If it's true that pitching and defense win championships, the Cubs have as good a chance as they've ever had of raising the banner this year.

Enjoy opening day and the next six months!

A Bruised, Bloody, and Beaten Bracket

So, my prediction of a UCLA/Kansa final game is still intact, but unfortunately little else is in my sorry looking bracket. Hindsight is always 20/20, but as I review my picks there is a lot more "what was I thinking?" than normal. Indiana in the elite 8 by beating Arkansas and North Carolina in Raleigh? Duke in the elite 8 because I couldn't decide who would win between Xavier and Purdue? And man did I misjudge the Big East. After watching their conference tourney, I thought "wow; Georgetown's really good and Pitt just destroyed them" when the proper conclusion to draw seems to be "Georgetown just got exposed because Pitt's not that good of a team." Oh well; I don't think I've ever won a tourney pool so I suppose the only difference this year is that I knew on day 3 that I was totally out of it instead of sometime during the 2nd weekend. I still am alive to maybe claw my way back into 3rd place, but I'm certainly not holding my breath.

So the Cubs season gets underway on Monday. I have been holding off on my season preview because there have been a lot of signs that some significant moves would get made before the start of the season. Now, however, other than a minor signing of a backup outfielder it looks like the team is largely the same group that entered spring training 5 weeks ago. I'll probably end up writing the preview this weekend during a CPA study break.

Really looking forward to seeing the movie 21, which comes out tomorrow. It's based on a true story about a group of students at MIT who took Vegas for a couple million dollars by counting cards at blackjack. I heard about this story a few years ago and have read a couple articles about it. I know there will be embellishments, but I really hope they don't go too overboard with it. The true story is intriguing enough that you don't need the extra drama.

Upset special for this round is Michigan St. over Memphis. That team just can't shoot free throws.

Have a good weekend everyone!

Halfway to a CPA!

Found out Saturday that I rocked the house on my 2nd CPA test (REG), getting a 91. Two more tests to go, with the next one (Audit) on tap for April 2nd and the final one (FAR) three weeks later on April 23rd. With any luck I will have my official certification by Memorial Day.

On Wednesday I am taking off with some friends to a cabin at White Pines State Park to pretty much do nothing but watch basketball for 3 straight days. Now, when I say "cabin" we are using this term in the loosest possible sense, since it has 3 bedrooms, a full kitchen, gas fireplace, propane grill, and a flat screen tv with satellite cable. So, yeah, we'll be roughing it. Of course, that should put me in fantastic shape for the 8k Shamrock Shuffle, which is less than 2 weeks away.

Since I'm taking a couple days off of work this week, I'm trying to get a little ahead so I don't end up with an avalanche of work when I get back Monday. So even though I've got enough thoughts to fill a couple pages today, I'll be brief (I can almost hear the cheers):

• The Super Bowl is my single favorite sports game, but March Madness is my favorite sports event overall. For most of the country, the Super Bowl is just about drinking and overeating but the way March Madness captures the mind of the whole country (at least this week) is without parallel. Of course, I'm not discounting the role of drinking and overeating here too. As Americans, we generally believe that every event would be better if we were drunk and eating something. And we are not wrong.
• By the way, we're looking at a UCLA-Kansas championship game this year, with UCLA winning it. You heard it here first.
• I was disappointed that Illinois lost yesterday, but I was pleased that after writing the season off 2 months ago I at least got to experience a little more excitement this year.
• Christy and I went to see "Horton Hears a Who" on Friday. It is pretty good, but you can definitely tell it comes from source material that's about 20 pages long. There's enough adult humor to keep those over 12 entertained, but you won't be missing anything by waiting for it on DVD.
• Speaking of DVD, No Country for Old Men is out now. If you're one of the few not into basketball, go out and rent that along with Gone Baby Gone and American Gangster and you will have yourself a good weekend in that will reaffirm your belief that Hollywood actually still can make good movies.
• If you do see (or have already seen) No Country for Old Men, don't bitch to me about the ending unless you're prepared for a lengthy conversation with the end result being me telling you that I respect your opinion but you're completely wrong.

Doubt I'll update again this week, so Happy St. Pat's day everyone and enjoy the Madness!

Working for the weekend

I got into Houston last Wednesday night at around 11:30, and got in a car with 2 zombies. This is a rough translation of the conversation that occurred.

“So how was opening day?”
“Mmmmmm . . .”
”Busy?”
“Lines out the door”
“Well, it’s good you’re busy at least. Any problems?”
“Well, we think we accidentally charged one lady $148 for her pizza, and then broke the credit card machine and could only take cash for a while.”
“Wow; do you have it all figured out now?”
“Yeah; now you’re here so you can deal with it”

I am told that the weather in Houston was nice while I was there. I wouldn’t really know, though, considering all I really saw of the city this trip was the inside of Windy City Pizza from 10:00 A.M. to 10: 00 P.M. Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Givcn that I never had experienced the joy of working in the food service industry during my minimum wage teen years, this was altogether new for me. About the closest I came was working the concessions at a movie theatre during high school, but of course transactions are a lot simpler and the menu is a lot more limited. Plus, that was back in the cash-only days so it really was my first time dealing with a credit card machine. Overall, I’d say that the experience was a lot of fun but also that I was definitely ready to leave by Sunday.

We got to the pizza place at 10:00 on Thursday morning and that whole day was pretty slow. While not ideal from a profitability standpoint, it was perfect for me to be able to learn how to work the register without getting mobbed. Friday was significantly busier and then Saturday most of the day was crazy. Overall, between Wednesday and Saturday the place did a little over $2700 worth of business. That’s actually real impressive considering so far they have done exactly 0 advertising and thus the only customers have been people from the area that saw the sign and people who knew one us. Almost without exception, everybody that tried either the deep dish or thin crust said it was far and away the best pizza you can get in the area. I also had the following conversation with at least 15 initially skeptical people:

Them: So, real Chicago pizza huh?
Me: Yep
Them: OK, but I’m from Chicago. I’ll know.
Me: Well, I still live in Chicago and I guarantee that it is.

Then I left them to figure out why someone who lives in Chicago was working a cash register in Houston.

Some quirks about Houstonians. First, they want to order a ridiculous amount of toppings on their pizza. Like 5-6 toppings is not unusual, even if they’re just ordering a 10 or 12 inch pizza. I am told that this is because most of the pizza places have really bland crust, sauce, and cheese and thus they’ve become used to the fact that the only taste they will get from the pizza is from the toppings. Second, they love ground beef as a topping. Everytime I heard “I’d like a meat-lovers pizza, but instead of Italian sausage can I get ground beef” there was a part of me that wanted to reach across the counter and slap them. But, seeing as we’re not going for “The Wiener Circle” feel, I restrained myself. We also had to introduce the greater Houston area to Italian beef, because they have absolutely no idea what it is. It was a dead giveaway whenever someone ordered one that they were from Chicago. During the slower times we brought out some samples to people while they waited for the pizza and everyone said that was really good too. I guess the proof will show up in the number of sales over the next couple weeks.

Anyway, I think those were the highlights. Throughout the weekend, I tried almost every major item. The thin crust is excellent; both the sauce and the crust are extremely flavorful. I’ve been trying to think about which place it is most similar to, but so far I can’t place it.. The deep dish is also excellent and is actually very similar to Giordano’s. I also tried the Slider burgers, which taste almost exactly like White Castles, except thicker and without the holes in the meat. Finally, Saturday night I treated myself to a meat calzone, which I made myself. That was also good, but honestly after working for 12 hours just about anything would have tasted good so I am a little biased. My nightly routine after closing was to go home and have a couple beers and then collapse in bed around midnight. On Thursday night I laid down and saw that the UCLA game was on and had 90 seconds left in the 2nd half. I didn’t even make it to the end of the game. The final little kick in the teeth was Saturday night when I figured I’d finally get to catch up on sleep only to remember that it was daylight savings time day. I usually look forward to that day, but this year I really wouldn’t have minded at all if it had been at least a week later.

I did finally get a little chance to relax Sunday afternoon. A friend of my Ps was having a crawfish boil at their place so we went over there and I got to lay in the sun for a couple hours before I headed back to the arctic. I got to try crawfish for the first time too. For those that have never had the experience of attending a crawfish boil, it is pretty interesting. They line up about 5 or 6 picnic tables, cover them with tablecloths and paper, and then just dump literally thousands of steamed crawfish on top and everybody just digs in. If you can get past the fact that it’s just one small step above eating an insect, they are pretty tasty. Although the amount of work that you have to do to get just a tiny bit of meat makes it not really worth it, in my opinion. But I guess that’s what makes me a northerner.

In any case, the business is certainly off and running, and the place looks great! I’ve attached a few pictures below so you can get a sense for how they tried to bring a real Chicago feel to the place. I’d like to point out that it is my Kerry Wood jersey that can be seen framed in the dining room. Note that the pictures were taken before it opened, so that's why there are no customers.

Another Quick One

Just another brief update to say that I took the 2nd part of the CPA on Monday. It went . . .eh, we'll see. The multiple choice went really well, but then there were two simulations and they went . . . less well. I looked it up yesterday and was pleased to see that it is weighted 70% for the multiple choice and 30% for the simulations so unless I totally bombed the sims or completely misjudged my multiple choice performance I should be ok. Probably give it 60/40 that I passed but I wouldn't be at all stunned if I didn't.

Already started studying for the next exam (T-minus 33 days and counting), which again will probably occur right after I find out the score from the last one. I have been getting progressively better about my study habits but I still have a ways to go. I thought that I was fairly on top of things with the last section by studying 1-2 hours a day until the last weekend but I ended up doing a lot more hardcore cramming than I ever planned on. I nearly pulled an all-nighter on Sunday night (went to bed at just before 3 and woke up at 6:45 to start studying again). Reminded me of my college days (in a very different way than what usually reminds me of them).

In other news, it looks like I will be heading down to Houston next week for the grand opening of my family's new Chicago-style pizza restaurant (Windy City Pizza)! The opening has been tentative for a while now as one beaureaucratic thing after another kept popping up and so they weren't able to hire people since they didn't know exactly when they'd be starting. Couple that with the fact that they have been getting bombarded with questions about when they are opening and they are worried about not having enough help for opening weekend. So even though I know absolutely nothing about making pizzas I will be heading down to lend a hand wherever I can. I have informed them that I actually do have a lot of expertise in eating pizza; not sure how that helps but it is part of my skillset. Opening day is next Wednesday (March 5th) and I fly in that night. I have already been informed that I'm being written up for missing the first day. However, I have been given assurance that as long as I am working for free, I can get written up lots of times before being dismissed. Anyway, I have been told that Chicago is a little outside of their delivery area, but if your travels ever take you to the greater Houston area be sure to stop in to get a taste of home!

One Down (Definitely), Three to Go

Just a quick update to say that I officially passed the first part of the CPA. I am currently immersed in the wonderful world of corporate tax rules as I await the returns of the Wisconsin and Hawaii primaries. Hopefully, all of you are having more fun than me tonight.

Christy and I went to see Rent this past weekend and neither of us were impressed. I didn't expect to be but Christy had been looking forward to it so she was disappointed. The play has been running for over 10 years now and it shows every bit of its age. Maybe I would have liked it more had I seen it on its first or second run; who knows. I can see how the fact that it uses "rock" music might appeal to people who don't normally like musicals, but if that's what you're looking for do yourself a favor and just go buy "Tommy" by the Who and listen to that instead. That's one piece that hasn't lost anything despite being over 30 years old. I seriously doubt Rent will still be touring in 2025. Of course, I've been wrong before.

A Perfect Storm?

I have forever lamented the fact that we have a two-party system in this country. It’s unfortunate not only because of the obvious problem of a lack of choices, but also because it diminishes the quality of the candidates as they are forced to try and cover an impossible amount of ideology to maintain their base. Run as a centrist Republican and the religious right will alienate you; run as a left-wing Democrat and the libertarians and independents will abandon you. I have always thought that if we injected a viable third-party into the mix that it would force candidates to carve out distinct positions rather than simply allowing themselves to be categorized as “left” or “right”. However, the more I’ve thought about it recently the more I’m realizing that there will never be a viable third-party (at least for the foreseeable future in this country). The reason is that whatever ideological side of the center a new party comes up on will just split the votes for that side’s existing party and give victory to the other side (e.g. Nader taking votes from the Democrats and Gore in 2000 and Perot taking votes from Republicans and Bush in 92 and Dole in 96). Hence, if we are ever to expand our current field of parties it is likely that we would need the introduction of 2 new parties (one leftist and one rightist) at once to even things out.

At this point though, the logistics of doing so appear extremely daunting. In general, the commitment of the American people to politics is tenuous at best. Even now, when political involvement is at the peak that it’s been in my lifetime, we’re still not even getting half the voting population out to vote in the primaries. Hence, the prospect of actually being able to get enough will and ambition together to start two new parties while still maintaining our current two seems very unlikely. In fact, it would take a set of circumstances so unlikely that for all statistical purposes it has rightfully been discounted as impossible. However, I believe that the conditions for such a perfect storm actually exist now for this to happen.

Before I get into the details, I want to make it abundantly clear that I do not see this as anything more than a remote possibility. However, it is more likely to happen now than at any other point in my life, and I can’t imagine a confluence of forces such as this ever occurring again.

As it stands today, we have a Republican race that has been unhappily decided and a Democratic race that is happily undecided. What I mean is that there are a lot of Republicans who are still trying to figure out just how the hell John McCain came back from the brink of bankruptcy and complete campaign chaos to “steal” the nomination. They are not excited about him, and the recent “protest” votes for Huckabee (even though the end result is all but certain) are a good indicator of that. This is really not surprising, given the wide gulf in beliefs between traditional conservatives and the religious right. In fact, it’s a minor miracle that these two groups have managed to co-exist in the same party for this long. You would not think that a group who has always believed that government should have an extremely limited role in the lives of citizens would be partnered with a group who wants to model the Constitution after the bible. On the other hand, there is more enthusiasm on the Democratic side than there has been since probably 1960 even though to this point we have a statistical dead heat between the candidates. It would seem that no matter what, the Democrats will be heading into the general election with a full head of steam towards the White House.

That is probably the most likely scenario and may very well be what ends up happening. However, let me propose a not entirely far-fetched scenario for you. Imagine that going into the convention Obama has won the popular vote and holds more pledged delegates but not enough for the nomination. Then, in a series of back-room deals that no one really understands you end up with Clinton as the nominee. Suddenly there’s a whole group of Obama supporters who thought their candidate won the nomination but now they’re seeing him shut out. They’re pissed off and probably aren’t going to be too excited about the prospect of getting behind Hillary. On the other side, as already mentioned McCain has some problems with his base. Let’s assume that the party as a whole is still very lackluster about him. The religious right and hardcore conservatives are desperate to get excited about someone else, if only there was another choice. They say that politics make for strange bedfellows, so how about this possibility? Someone representing the religious right (like Huckabee) calls up Obama and says “I’m not happy with my party right now and I know you’re not happy. I’m thinking of running as an independent but if I do that I might as well give the presidency to Clinton. But what if we both run as independents? That way voters in both parties will have two viable candidates to choose from.”

Again, I want to stress how remote a possibility I consider this, but it is very intriguing all the same especially given some of the results we’ve seen in the primaries. For instance look at Virginia, which has been a red state in every presidential election since 1964. Yesterday McCain carried it over Huckabee 50-41, but Obama carried it over Clinton 64-35. That means that if that split holds, even if 55% vote for some combination of McCain/Huckabee, and only 45% vote for Obama/Clinton, Obama would carry the state. That means that a lot of the traditional “this state is definitely red; this state is definitely blue” would be called into question and would require a completely different campaign strategy. And it would be a relief to for once see at least some candidates fighting to position themselves in the center to please the independents and moderates instead of fighting to go more left or more right to please the fringes. Perhaps more importantly, it might finally force a general election to be about “these are the good things I stand for and vote for me because of them” instead of “this is the bad thing my opponent stands for and vote for me because I’m not him.” Of course, even in my proposed scenario I'm still making the enormous leap in logic that the candidates running as independents would have an earnest desire to start and maintain a separate party instead of just running as a one-off like Perot or Nader (ok, I guess they are both technically two-offs).

Of course, all this will be completely moot if Obama just keeps on winning, and as much as I’d like to see an expansion of the two-party system, I think I’d like to see that more.

One Down (maybe), Three to Go

So I had the distinct pleasure of taking the first part of the CPA exam back on the 28th. I would classify my outlook as "cautiously optimistic", which is probably the best you can ever really feel after one of those. There wasn't anything on there that I looked at and thought "Good god, I have absolutely NO idea!" but then there were a lot of questions where half-way through reading it I was like "Oh, I know this one" but then I'd read through the answers and not like any of them or I'd like 2 of them. I also was a bit concerned because I heard that depending on how well you do in each section they adjust it to make it easier or harder in subsequent sections. Well, it definitely seemed to me like sections 2 and 3 were easier than #1, but maybe that was just my perception. Going in I felt like there was a lot of stuff that I still didn't know very well, but after taking it there was actually a lot more that I did know that they never asked about . I was also suprised that it was about 2/3 conceptual and 1/3 computational and I was expecting the opposite. Overall, it was easier than I thought it was going to be but I still give it a decent chance that I didn't pass (I'd put the odds at about 66-33 in favor of me passing). I am supposed to find out by February 18th at the latest, which is just 7 days before my next exam. Either it will be a very nice boost for me to study a lot the last week, or it will be crushingly demoralizing.

In events not directly related to my life it's been a pretty exciting week. Wow, what a Super Bowl! Probably the most exciting one I've ever seen (not including the 2 the Bears were in, which were obviously more exciting to me but not purely as games by themselves). Certainly right up there with the Packers-Broncos game in 98. There was a period from about the mid-80s to the late 90s where about 80-90% of the Super Bowls were extremely boring blowouts and it's good to see that by and large that hasn't been the case the last 10 years. It's such a letdown when you have 2 weeks of hype and then the game's over by halftime. Especially since it's 7 long months till the next meaningful football game.

Then, of course, there was Super Tuesday. Obviously, not everyone's going to agree with me, but I was absolutely thrilled with the outcome. The only thing that was slightly disappointing was Barack's mediocre performance in California (no love from the asians and latinos) but to come out with (probably) more delegates than Clinton on the night and with all the momentum in the world bodes extremely well for him. Tuesday also marked the first time I have ever walked into a polling place and had to utter the word "Democrat" when they asked which ballot I wanted. Even though I am a strong Obama supporter, it was still very uncomfortable to utter. Anyway, I am also extremely thrilled that the Republican nomination is all but sewn up for McCain. I probably would vote for Obama over McCain, but it would be very close and I could easily see myself changing my mind by the general election. However, I would just be extremely excited to have the dilemma of choosing between two candidates that I really like. Even though Obama has a lot of momentum, my inherent distrust in the competence of the DNC makes me extremely leary that they are going to royally screw this process up assuming (as is likely) that no one gets the required number of delegates by the convention. The talk of "brokering a deal" (as Howard Dean, the chairman of the DNC, has suggested) or all of a sudden deciding to count the Florida and Michigan delegates (as a lot of political pundits have predicted) is sickening to hear. Either one of those would be enough to get people so disgusted with the Democratic party that you might as well just hold McCain's inauguration at the Democratic National Convention. Personally, assuming that neither candidate earns the required number of delegates, I think the only fair thing to do is give it to the candidate who won the overall popular vote (not counting Florida and Michigan, since candidates were not allowed to campaign there).

I think that's all the thoughts I have for today. On tap this weekend is once again more CPA studying and then a curling double-header on Sunday. I lead an exciting life, I know . . .

The Misadventures of Mr. Fix-It (as well as Mr. Break-It)

I'm not even gonna bother with the lame excuses for why it's been so long since I've updated.

So, last week I had my first home maintenance snafu. Since our living room lights tend to output roughly the amount of light needed in your average prison break spotlights I decided to install some dimmer switches in the living room. Everything was going according to plan until I couldn't get one of the switches to work when the other was turned off (i.e. if switch 1 was "on" then switch 2 would turn the lights on and off but if switch 1 was off switch 2 did nothing). Apparently that is just how dimmer switches work and is also why no one installs 2 dimmers to the same set of lights. Well, not knowing this I thought there was a "problem" and thought I could "fix" it. I made the "corrections" and upon flipping the circuit breaker was treated to a very loud and deeply unsettling popping noise followed by continued darkness. I then went back and hooked up the dimmers how I originally had them and now could not get the lights to turn on. Firmly convinced that I had in one fell swoop completely destroyed our new condo's wiring I proceeded to haul out a plug-in lamp and sat in semi-darkness in front of the tv, firmly demoralized. So the next day I decided to put back on the original light switches and Eureka! we had light again. I assumed (whether correct or not) that the reason they had stopped working was that I had blown out my dimmer switches when I wired one of the things wrong. I therefore decided to get some new switches and I am proud to say that we are now fully capable of multiple lumen outputs in our living room and front hall!

Somewhat bolstered by my eventual success, I decided to tackle another daunting task: mounting our flat screen tv on the wall. We recently bought a 37-inch LCD to replace our mammoth 53-inch projection monstrosity since it just took up way too much space in the bedroom. LCDs are quite a bit lighter than plasmas and I felt like a 50lb structure was something I could handle. So I got my first experience using a stud finder. I always wondered how the hell those worked. Apparently, it's just a magnetic sensor that detects the nails that are used to attach the drywall to the studs. Anyway, I am happy to say that as of now (8 days after mounting), our tv remains firmly affixed to our wall. Overall, there's really nothing to it. But let me just tell you how unnerving it is when you first hang the tv up! There are only 4 little screws that only go in about a quarter inch holding the bracket to the tv. Then there are only two giant screws that hold the frame to the wall. That means that all that stands between you and disaster are 6 screws. Considering that works out to only about 8 pounds per screw, though, I guess it's not so bad.

In other condo updates, we craigslisted our leather couch and sold it on Monday. In an amazing coincidence, the people that bought it live next door. That was a pretty amusing chain of e-mails:

Where are you located?
In Evanston
Great, me too. Where at?
Basically Noyes and Ridge
Wow, that's exactly where I'm at. What address?
2151
No way! I am at 2153

We bought the couch about 2 years ago (also off of craigslist) for $100. We listed it for $150, figuring that we would get negotiated down to about $100, but god bless the naive Northwestern student who didn't bother even trying to negotiate. So we made $50 on the deal. Not bad. The new couch is getting delivered tomorrow, so we have been sans couch since Monday. I'll tell you something; I never realized how therapeutic it was to come home and sit or lay on the couch until I didn't have that option anymore. Sitting in a chair just doesn't do it.

In other news, I am taking the first part of the CPA exam on Monday, so most of my free time that hasn't been dedicated to the condo has been spent studying for that. I feel decently prepared, but I still have a loooooong weekend's worth of studying to do before I'll truly feel ready (and I probably still won't even then). And once I'm done on Monday, the countdown begins anew with 28 days till the next one. Anyway, wish me luck!

By the way, you have no idea how old it makes me feel to have just written a very lengthy post about home improvement and couch transactions.

We Are Officially Owners of Our Own Personal Fortress of Solitude

Earlier this year I uttered the absurdly unprophetic statement that "it will be so nice to have Christmas week off because it will be the first time since I was laid off at Kemper that I've had a week off that wasn't specifically to go anywhere or do anything. It will be really relaxing." Then we decided to move. Whoops. Anyway, I don't think I've ever come back from a "vacation" more exhausted. It seems like every day we make only very marginal headway and half the time once we get done with a particular project it gets ripped down or we decide we need to replace it; so we know it will get ripped down.

Anyway; enough complaining for now. The bottom line is that yes we are in fact officially homeowners (actually condo owners). All in all the closing and moving process went well, although there were a few snags (aren't there always?). The most major of which was the sellers trying to assign us not once but twice a parking space that has a pole directly in the middle of it. Fortunately I had scoped out the spaces the night before during the inspection and we didn't fall for it. I guess it's true that they really will try anything when you get around the closing table. The other annoyance was that we didn't get a final settlement statement until we showed up at the closing, but that turned out to be a pleasant surprise because we ended up owing a lot less than we thought we would. As for the actual move, we pretty much could not have picked a worse day for it: cold and snowing. I guess the positive way to look at it is that it made the decision to hire movers seem a lot wiser. To anyone who has never hired movers before, I know it's hard to believe but it is almost more tiring than moving it all yourself, albeit a different kind of tired. When you do it yourself, I think you're so focused on bringing the next box in and so exhausted after a while that you don't have time to worry about it all. But when you have movers all you do is observe them taking every piece out and it just makes you constantly stressed and mentally exhausted. But apart from a couple scrapes on the wall, a chunk off the corner of the TV cabinet, a broken vase, and some irreparable damage to my limited edition Luke Skywalker Return of the Jedi Remastered Opening Day action figure we appear to be no worse for the wear.

Yesterday and today I got my first experience of the long morning el commute and so far it's not too bad. I can tell that I'm gonna get through books pretty damn fast: in the 3 rides thus far I've read about 150 pages. In theory I could use that time to study for the CPA, but I'm not really mentally prepared to do that first thing in the morning so I'll just make it my goal to do that during the commute home.

Tonight Christy and I will be taking a much deserved break from the world of boxes and assembling furniture to go out to dinner and a movie. I think we're going to try a BBQ place in downtown Evanston that is supposed to be good and then we're going to see Juno, which I'm really looking forward to.

Lastly, let me just take a moment to applaud Obama's victory in Iowa last night. Nothing to get too excited about yet, but practically speaking had he not won it pretty much would have been the end of his campaign. I'm also glad Huckabee won, not because I like him but because it's good for McCain. Hopefully in 5 days New Hampshire will produce Obama and McCain as winners and then I'll be very happy. If somehow we end up with those two fighting it out in the general election I will be happy no matter who wins. On the other hand, if we end up with Giuliani vs. Hillary . . . um, let's just say I'll be less than thrilled with my choices. Who's the Libertarian candidate again?

I Owe, I Owe, It's Off to Debt We Go

Just a quick note since I haven't had the chance to write in a while and I'm not sure when the next chance will be. Our closing, which was supposed to occur on the 24th, got pushed off till today (the 27th). Apparently, they hadn't gotten their Certificate of Owner Occupancy from the city of Evanston yet (the slip of paper confirming that the city considers our place up to code and habitable). Anyway, I was only scheduled to work one day this week, and I'll give you one guess which day that was. And of course I already had 3 meetings scheduled for this morning so I had to come into work anyway (by the way, I only have time to write this because my last meeting got out 15 minutes early and I'm waiting for my next one). We had our inspection last night and, in theory anyway, we will be having our closing in just over 3 hours from now (even though I still don't have a final settlement statement from the title company yet). Overall, to this point the process has gone fairly smoothly. I will say, though, that it just seems like there ought to be a better way to go about this. So much gets left off to the last minute and then if every domino doesn't fall just the right way it causes everything else to come to a screeching halt. Oh well, I guess that's why people only go through this a few times in their life (hopefully).

I did get a chance to take a break from packing and dealing with all of this and got out to see a couple movies yesterday. I decided to see No Country for Old Men and Alien Vs. Predator: Requiem. Without getting into too many specifics I'll just say seeing those two back-to-back does not make for a good double-feature. It's a bit strange to go from seeing a slow-paced, taut drama with lots of interesting dialogue and three dimensional characters to seeing a cookie-cutter action/sci-fi with dialogue that has been directly lifted from other (better) films and characters that essetially exist to act as minnows thrown into the Alien/Predator shark tank. Don't get me wrong, I enjoy stupid sci-fi/action as much as the next guy (if not more), but it's a rough transition.

Overall I think No Country for Old Men slots in as my 2nd favorite film of the year so far (just after Gone, Baby, Gone and just ahead of American Gangster), although I have yet to see both Atonement and Juno and I hear they are both excellent. There are a lot of people that are really bothered by the abruptness of the ending, but I have to say that it really didn't bother me. Maybe it was because I had already heard complaints about it beforehand, but to me I thought everything wrapped up as well as it good have and they had made the point they were trying to make. I read Ebert's review of the movie last night and I think one sentence he said about the film was perfect: "Many of the scenes in "No Country for Old Men" are so flawlessly constructed that you want them to simply continue, and yet they create an emotional suction drawing you to the next scene." I have a lot more to say about this film, but it's nearly impossible to do so without talking about specifics. If and when you see it, I'll be happy to sit down and chat with you about it.

OK, time to run to my 11:00 meeting. Hopefully all goes smoothly with the close and I will give an update as soon as I can.

Drug Addicts Are Smarter Than Baseball Players

So, since my wife decided this week to blog about a serious issue, maybe I'm supposed to do one about food?

Anyway, I suppose the big news (for sports fans anyway) that came out this week was the Mitchell report yesterday, which lists the results of the 18-month investigation into steroids in baseball headed by former Senator George Mitchell. Reaction to the report has ranged from "finally everything is coming out" to "this report is completely impotent". As usual, the truth lies somewhere in between. In general, I think your opinion of the usefullness of the report comes from what you expected the report to accomplish. What it boils down to is that most of the report is speculation, hearsay, and guilt by association. Almost all the names in the report of people who admitted to using steroids have already admitted to it previously. Most of the rest is those people saying "so and so once told me he did steroids" and everyone declining to be interviewed by Mitchell.

Probably the most interesting thing in the report is that there are a couple of "smoking guns" where copies of cancelled checks to known steroid dealers are included. This highlights the wonderful point of proving how dumb a lot of baseball players truly are. I'm willing to bet that very, very few illegal street drug transactions take place via check. Yes, this may be because many of them lack checking accounts, but I think it also has to do with a mutual desire between purchaser and vendor to avoid a paper trail. Alas, it appears that something which seems like common sense to a crack head does not also occur to the heroes of our national past time. Further heightening the level of idiocy prevalant among players is the fact that in 2003 when baseball did an announced, anonymous test 5 to 7 percent of major leaguers failed it. Yep, even though the players knew the test was coming, at least 5 percent made no effort to try and pass it. True, since it was anonymous they didn't face any direct repercussions, but again you would think that a person with any sense of logic would say "if we all pass this test, then we can say that the sport is clean, and hopefully avoid further scrutiny." Any sane person would realize that any result above the margin of error for the test would definitely result in further testing. I suppose the final argument that can be made is that there were players unknowingly taking steroids. However, I hardly think mindlessly popping pills and injecting yourself with unknown substances is a solid argument for the intelligence of said player.

Overall, my opinion about steroids in baseball remains unchanged, and it is this: I don't care, and no one else does either. Now, making such an inflammatory statement like that calls for some clarification, and it should surprise none of you that my reasoning lies in the realm of economics. Discounting the strike and its immediate ramifications, during the "steroid era" of baseball ratings and attendance (and as a direct result, salaries) have risen dramatically (I'm too lazy to look up the stats but I know that's true). For a while, it was pretty easy to dismiss the steroid issue as baseless speculation. In the wake of the '98 home run race with Sosa and McGwire things started changing. Suddenly people began to wonder why players were looking more like Hulk Hogan and less like Kenny Lofton and asking how it was possible that players who had never hit more than 20 HRs in their life were suddenly able to hit over 40 in their mid-30s and just why the hell is Barry Bond's head getting bigger? The result from the baseball world was a collective shrug and a "nothing's been proven so this is a witch hunt" attitude. And the result of that was that pretty much every baseball fan in the country came to the conclusion that steroids were rampant in the clubhouses. But here's where my point comes in; even though everybody admitted that, they still tuned in and went to games in record numbers. We live in a capitalist society, and thus where the free market is concerned we "vote" with our dollars. So, even though you may say "I'm against steroids in baseball" if you continue to support it after you know it exists then you're really not, just like you can't say that you are against Nike paying southeast asian kids 7 cents an hour while you're wearing Nike shoes. The bottom line is that when faced with the choice of having "baseball with steroids" or "no baseball" the fans overwhelmingly chose "baseball with steroids"; myself included. I think this result is similar to what you see in people's attitude towards Congress. When asked, "do you think Congressmen are corrupt?" people overwhelmingly answer "yes" but when asked "is your Congressmen corrupt?" the answer is generally "no". Hence, I think a lot of fans have/had the attitude that "yes, there's a lot of steroid use, but not on my team".

I bring this all up not to suggest that steroids shouldn't be abolished, but just to temper this outrage that "Bud Selig and the owner's haven't done enough to get rid of steroids." While I have great disdain every time I hear the empty rhetoric from Bud's mouth of "steroids are a serious problem, and we will get rid of them" I also realize that he has no real motivation to do so. This is true of every corporation. They will use every inch of the law to do what is in their own best interest. Whenever a corporation decides to do something "eco friendly" or charitable, they are not truly doing it out of the goodness of their hearts (despite what their 30-second tv spots may proclaim). They are doing so because they believe the PR boost (or sometimes recovery from a PR hit) will lead directly to boosting their bottom line. That's how we end up with the ridiculousness where the only advertising tobacco companies are now allowed to do is ads saying "don't use our product." They don't actually want you to quit, they just want to avoid future lawsuits!

I don't want anyone to think that the preceding is an attack on capitalism, because it is not. I think that's exactly how things should be. A corporation is not a person, so you should not expect it to act morally. You can, however, expect it to act legally. That's why the role of government needs to be to set up the rules under which companies must operate, and that's where government has failed (and is continuing to fail) with baseball. Hence, I am leaning more to the side of "this report is impotent" although I realize that it never was designed to do anything more than it did. The basic hope of both baseball and Congress is that the humiliation of a couple of big stars will be enough to turn fans against them, cost them the Hall of Fame, and then hopefully deter future players from doing it. My prediction? It won't work, especially given the prevalence of HGH use (for which there is not and probably never will be a urine test for). I think when a player is sitting in A or AA and realizes that they have hit the peak of their abilities, they won't care that a potential failed steroid test "may" cost them the fan's admiration down the line. They will only see the potential million dollar pay day down the road if they are able to get up to that next level. After all, after failing a steroid test at the end of his career, Rafael Palmeiro may now be living in disgrace. But he's doing so inside a multi-million dollar home with a well-padded bank account, and that's probably more than enough for a minor leaguer who makes $30k, rides a bus 8 hours a day, and sleeps in shady motels.

In God's Bathroom, He Has This Showerhead

So Christy and I have begun compiling a list of things we'd like to get for the new place. During out trip to Hawaii this past summer, we stayed at a bed and breakfast that had a shower with a showerhead in it that was the size of a dinner plate. We thought this would be a cool thing to have in our new place and we started looking online to see how much they cost. We found this one on Amazon (http://tinyurl.com/yra96x). It's official name is the "Waterpik AST233CC Total Body Drenching 2 Mode Wall Mount Aquascape Showerhead." Impressed yet? Well, that is nothing compared to what one of the reviewers has to say about it. I'm still torn about whether this guy was doing this tongue-in-cheek, or if he's serious. You be the judge:

"Right off the bat, let me warn that this showerhead is not for everyone. If you like standing in a gentle mist while being drizzled with cascading rain droplets, there are other units that accomlpish this . . .On the other hand, if you prefer to be pummeled by what feels like the Colorado River, the Aquascape stands alone. I am, by most standards, a hefty man, yet when fully engaged the Aquascape literally pushes me backwards in the shower as though I'm being sprayed with a firehose. . . Also, before buying note that this is a fixed wall mount unit. There is no detachable, handheld piece and, quite frankly, it's probably much safer that way, as a handheld component could easily spiral out of control with this kind of pressure."

Sweet; where do I sign up?

Anyway, it looks like we are full steam ahead with the condo. The contract is being reviewed by the attorney and the appraisal was done on Monday. Financing is getting finalized and we officially told our landlord that we will be leaving at the end of December.

As I think I mentioned before (maybe) I finally finished Greenspan's book (The Age of Turbulence). Probably the best book I've read this year (and I know you're all eagerly awaiting my top 10 from this year). I won't overly bore you with too much economic detail, but there were two things I found really interesting. Neither one is necessarily his idea (and in fact I'm sure many others have written about them) but he had a way of presenting them that made them very straight forward and easy to understand. The first is the concept of something called "Dutch disease" (not to be confused with Dutch Elm Disease that affects trees). This is a counterintuitive idea that talks about how the more natural resources a country has, the more crippled their economy will be. This is especially true of developing countries. The reason is that because there is high demand for the natural resources the country has, it keeps that country's currency at a much higher exchange rate than it would be otherwise. This, in turn, makes it nearly impossible for the country to be a low-cost leader in any other industry, since it is competing with countries with lower value currencies that can easily underbid them. Of course, the country can still achieve and maintain a relatively healthy GDP, but it will almost exclusively be due to sales of their resources which, as we all know, are finite. This goes a long way towards explaining why countries such as Saudi Arabia have not been able to make the leap to first-world standards despite the presence of the huge petroleum cash cow.

The other idea I found extremely revealing was a discussion on what prices are likely to do over the next 30 years or so. In general, over the last 20 years inflation has been pretty low. A big reason for this has been the emergence of developing countries taking over a lot of the outsourced manufacturing jobs (i.e. kids in Thailand making Nike shoes for $.07 an hour). Being able to exploit cheap labor markets has served to suppress the overall price of things, as company's have continually been able to find ways of making the same or better quality goods for progressively cheaper and cheaper. As a result, the money being poured into these countries has helped their economies develop tremendously. That has certainly been a net positive for them as a whole, but the one drawback is since their economies are stronger now their exchange rates are higher and thus they are finding it more difficult to remain the low-cost leader and underbid everyone else. As an example, China has now started complaining that they can't compete with Vietnam on cost since the Chinese currency has strengthened so much. So we see a cycle appear where developed countries outsource to developing ones until they improve themselves and then the investment shifts to a new, less developed country. The trouble is that we are running out of developing countries to do that with! We are rapidly approaching a point where there will be no "lower tier" to go to anymore because all the countries that are in a position to grow will have grown and all the other poor countries (i.e. most of Africa) are not yet ready to step up. The end result will be that this large deflationary force that has been present and increasing for the last 20 years will no longer be present and we can expect significantly higher inflation to be the norm. Of course, the key is determining when the inflation is going to start picking up, and not even the great Alan Greenspan knows that. All I can say is, despite the housing market slump I'm still thinking it's a good time to be buying a place. Even if property values continue to relatively decline, they are likely to still be buoyed up by inflation.

Ok, I think that's all I got for now. Got back from Houston early last Sunday and got back to the work grind this week. Looking forward to having a relaxing weekend and then I need to jump back into CPA studying next week.

Have a good weekend all!

Freedom and Bondage

Well, I have to this point succesfully managed to avoid prison. My experience with the police was not quite as bad as them slapping the cuffs on and throwing me in a lineup but it wasn't nearly as innocuos as "we just need you to make a statement to close out our investigation" either. It was pretty much a full-blow interrogation, complete with putting me in a little room with a two-way mirror and grilling me for about 20 minutes, and then leaving me locked inside by myself for another 20. But then he came back and asked me questions for about 5 minutes and that was it. Oh well, hopefully that is the end of it. Supposedly, the correct thing to do with your plates after you've used them is to return them to the DMV. Because if there's one thing everybody wants, it's another trip to the DMV.

Anyway, hot on the heels of maintaining my freedom it looks like I will be going into a different sort of prison: getting a home mortgage. Last week Christy and I made an offer on a condo in Evanston and, after some back and forth, we have a signed contract! There are still of course a couple of (hopefully) minor hurdles to clear, but as of now we are tentatively closing on December 24th and moving on the 26th. Not the stress-free Christmas I was imagining (but really does such a thing even exist?) but it will be nice to be in the new place to start the new year. It will be especially nice for Christy since her commute will be getting cut more than in half and right at the time of the year when snow can make any commute an absolute nightmare.

Right now I am down in Houston relaxing. Going to see a couple movies this afternoon (probably Beowulf and 30 Days of Night). Haven't been doing a whole lot else so far; mainly watching football. Tonight I get to break that up by watching the first televised Illini basketball game (10:30 tonight against Arizona St.), so that's exciting.

Think that's about all for now. If I don't blog again before then (likely) have a good Thanksgiving everyone and enjoy arguing with all your relatives!

Happy Birthday to Me!

OK, so it's not my actual birthday. However, I just realized that as of Halloween night my blog officially turned 1. Even though it wasn't technically till November 27th that I actually wrote about anything of substance I decided I'd bring it up now. So, I ended up with 38 posts total in the year, which was a bit below my goal of doing at least 1 per week but oh well. That just gives me something to shoot for during year 2.

In other news, I'm going to prison. Well, not really (I hope) but I do get to drive out to Schaumburg on Wednesday to talk to the police. I got a phone call from them last Friday afternoon and apparently someone with plates that were registered in my name two years ago was spotted driving away from a bank parking lot after breaking into a car and stealing stuff out of it. Of course, the plates have been expired since August of 2006 but apparently that doesn't matter. They were on Christy's Escort, which we sold back in July of 2006 and then threw the plates out. I am thinking that someone either working at a city dump or with a garbage hobby dug them out and then sold them to an unsavory type. In any case, apparently all I have to do is give them a statement so that they can close out the investigation. That sounds all nice and innocent until they slap the cuffs on me and put me in a lineup the second I walk into the station. Regardless, I think the lesson here for everyone is to not throw your plates away without shredding or otherwise destroying them first.

Finally, assuming I don't go to jail Christy and I were out looking at condos this past weekend and are hoping to move by the end of the year if all goes as planned (which of course rarely happens in real estate deals). We found a condo that we really like up in Evanston but we also found a house up there too for just slightly more money. We're going to take a look at it after work today. The prospect of going from a one-bedroom apartment to a single family home is hard to wrap my head around, but it's also very exciting too. I'll post some pictures if we end up putting an offer in to either place. Both places are within about 5 blocks of each other and are on the north side of Evanston near the Northwestern campus. It's also less than a 15 minute walk to the dowtown shop area, so although everything wouldn't be quite "at our fingertips" as it is right now, it's still very much an urban setting and I wouldn't need to rely on the car to get around. Perhaps most importantly, I have already made sure that the Taco Bell is within easy walking distance.

I'll Take "Pragmatism" For Any Price, Alex

Since it’s Friday and I’ve got a slow day at work, I thought I’d dive into some more serious fare once again. Over the past year or two I have been ratcheting up my interest in politics to a level it hasn’t been at since I was a card-carrying member of the Young Republicans back in 1997. However, over the past couple months I have been increasingly getting disillusioned and reminded of why I have felt so much apathy towards politics in the past. I am really disheartened by the total lack of pragmatism that exists on both sides of the aisle. This has really been brought into focus for me by seeing what has been going on with the debate over the new Child Health Insurance bill currently moving through Congress. Just as a quick recap, this bill is a reauthorization of a program that already exists called SCHIP (State Children’s Health Insurance Program) which has the goal of ensuring that children of poor families are still able to get health care. OK, that seems like a pretty good, practical idea that should be bipartisan. Certainly doesn’t seem like something that would trigger a huge political battle. But of course it has. The bill was introduced into the House back in February where it passed overwhelmingly 360 to 45 (28 abstaining). It passed similarly in the Senate in August by a count of 68-31-1. It was then vetoed by President Bush. I think this is a good point to also interject that this veto by Bush was the first one he has wielded in his 6 and a half years in office. The fact that he chose to do it with a bill that passed with 89% of the House vote and 69% of the Senate is surprising, to say the least. But of course, all you need is 2/3 majority to override the veto so this thing will still have no problem becoming law right? Of course not. The veto override fails with a vote of 273-156-2 (63.6%).

Not surprisingly, public opinion about whether or not the veto was a good idea falls largely along party lines. People who identify with Democrats blame Bush for vetoing a bill that passed with overwhelming bipartisan support and those who identify with Republicans point out the bill’s weaknesses and blame Democrats for not coming up with a better bill. Of course, these both miss the mark on where the real blame belongs: on everybody! Now, I have no desire to start debating the pros and cons of this bill right now because it’s irrelevant to the point I’m trying to make, which is outrage at the process. When the bill was voted on in the House the first time, Republicans voted in favor of it 145-45-15. When the time came to override the veto, the Republican vote changed to 44-154-2. That is a complete 180 degree turn and it’s the same bill! Why was it a good idea in February but it’s a terrible idea now? The way I see it, there are only 3 possibilities for the Congressmen that changed their minds: 1) they didn’t read it carefully enough the first time, 2) they still believe in the bill but are being loyal to the President, or 3) they decided that by opposing this bill they could gain some political traction on the Democrats. For different reasons, all of those are unacceptable and work to the detriment of the best interests of the nation. First, if they didn’t read the bill closely enough the first time they were casting an irresponsible vote. Second, backing the President when you disagree philosophically is a neglect of their Congressional duty to act as a check and balance of the executive branch. Lastly, changing your mind simply to fan a political flame fulfills all the worst stereotypes about politicians placing themselves and their party ahead of the country’s interests.

OK, so I’ve harped on the Republicans but how about the Democrats? Well, after the veto failed they passed a slightly revised bill by a count of 265-142 (65%). Guess what? That’s still short of the veto-proof number. The heads and whips of each party know exactly where they stand on each bill at almost every moment. Why in the world would you bring a bill to vote knowing full well it is going to get vetoed again and that you are short of the override? If you couldn’t change a Rep’s mind before the initial vote, what chance are you going to have when the it involves not only changing sides on an issue but also breaking ranks with their own party and going against the President? But they voted on it anyway, Bush has already vowed to veto it, and now we’ll get to see a 2-week long song and dance with lots of speeches and fanfare, with each side blaming the other for the problems, and absolutely nothing getting done at the end of it. Then it will get thrown back in the House for another revision. At that point, most likely what it will take to get it through is the addition of a lot “pork” to a few of the dissenting voters to fund some of their pet projects so that they can go back to their constituents and say “yeah I voted for that bill, because even though I didn’t like the health care aspect, it got us this new highway!” Either that, or the bill will get so watered down that in the process of removing the objectionable parts the beneficial parts will get taken out too and we’ll be left with yet another big expensive government program that doesn’t work.

Please forgive me for being naïve, but does it have to be this way? I mean, if a public company operated in this way they would face the ire of a mob of angry stockholders who would vote the board of directors out of their chairs in a heartbeat. And they wouldn’t stop to ask “well, who is it that is really clogging up the works here?” they’d just say “you guys can’t get the job done; you’re out”. So where’s the ire from us, the stockholders of the democracy? Of course there is none, because this isn’t seen as anything new. The headline “Congress Inefficient” on a newspaper would garner about the same level of interest to people as the headline “Oxygen Discovered to be Breathable.”

Whatever happened to the idea that when two sides couldn’t agree on something, they locked themselves in a room and didn’t come out till they could come up with a compromise? I realize that doesn’t work on everything (abortion comes to mind) but if you can’t do that with something as seemingly universal as “poor kids should have access to doctors too” how on in the world are you ever going to solve any real sophisticated problems (like, for instance, the war in Iraq)?

I mean, has it always been like this? I didn’t think so, and now I have Alan Greenspan to back me up. I am in the process of reading his book The Age of Turbulence (which is easily the best book I’ve read this year) and he has this to offer about partisan politics:

“The four congressional caucuses, two in each body, have shifted dramatically over the years. Each caucus, two Republican, two Democratic, used to comprise liberals, moderates, and conservatives. To be sure, the proportions differed by party, but there was rarely enough cohesion to produce overwhelming majorities for any piece of legislation in any of the four caucuses. Votes on legislation typically would be Democrats 60 percent for, 40 percent against, and Republicans 40 percent for, 60 percent against, or vice versa. Today’s congressional caucuses . . .have become either predominantly liberal (the Democrats) or conservative (the Republicans). Accordingly, legislation that used to split party votes 60 percent to 40 percent is now more likely to be 95 percent to 5 percent. Legislation has consequently become highly partisan.”

He goes on to say:

In 1974 “partisan fervor was largely set aside as the sun went down. The dinners I attended (a Washington political ritual) were invariably bipartisan. Senators and representatives from both parties would mix with administration stalwarts, the media, and the city’s social power brokers. During 2005, my last full year in government, the ritual dinners were still there, but they had become intensely partisan. On many occasions, I was the only Republican present. And at “Republican dinners” I attended, there were few, if any, Democrats.”

I think the crux of the second quote is intricately linked with the results of the first. As elected officials increasingly identify themselves as “Republican Congressmen” or “Democratic Congressman” rather than “US Congressman” it almost becomes a gang-type affiliation and the Capitol becomes the battleground for trench warfare rather than fertile ground for ideas and legislation to grow. And you can see it in the way issues are presented and debated. Rather than one side saying “well this is a pretty good bill, but there are some problems we need to iron out” you end up with one side saying “this is a horrible bill that will take the country in the absolute wrong direction.” And of course it’s easy to see what happens next. Have you ever been engaged in a debate where you didn’t care much one way or the other but the person you were talking to started spouting off exaggerations and half-truths in such a one-sided manner that you found yourself vehemently arguing for the other side and doing some of the same things? That’s what happens here, as the other side basically says “this is a wonderful bill that is critical to the country’s success and must be passed immediately.” So now, instead of the debate being framed around the tweaks that need to be made, we get to hear about the exaggerated benefits from one side and then get the problems catastrophised from the other. And, of course, lost in the shuffle is the middle ground, which also happens to contain the truth.

So, what exactly am I saying? I’m saying that it depresses me that the political debates are such in this country that I always feel as if I have to choose between two extremes. It is especially troubling because I, as well as most people, usually prefer the middle ground. I am hopeful that this age of uber-partisan politics is only a phase and that good sense will prevail in the end. Whether or not you agree with his views, Obama’s message of “the politics of hope” (meaning campaigning on the issues and not on opponent attacks) as well as his commitment to not accepting funds from lobbyists are a good start, but so far he stands largely alone amidst of sea of polarizing forces.

I spend at least 4-5 hours a month talking politics with my friend Joe. Sometimes we agree and sometimes we don’t, but I always have respect for him and his views and I’m always more than happy to sit down and have a beer with him before, during, and/or after. I guess I’d just like to see that same kind of civility from our government. Am I asking too much?

I'll Have Nothing (and Like It)

This weekend for the first time in what seems like forever I did pretty much nothing and I must say that it was everything I dreamed it would be and more. It was awesome to have an entire weekend where the most pressing engagements I had were 1) going to see a movie on Friday night and 2) dragging myself a mile away to watch the Illini game at The Fieldhouse Saturday night. Apart from those distractions (and a couple trips to the gym) I spent a lot of quality time on the couch watching and gambling on football. Ultimately, gambling-wise I had a pretty good weekend (+$130) but really the point for me isn't to win money it's just to avoid losing my bankroll and thus having to put more in (one of my favorite gambling quotes is "I hope to break even this week; I really need the money." That only makes sense to you if you're a gambler). As a fan, the weekend was a mixed bag. The Illini game was quite disappointing. Ultimately it was probably a meaningless loss though since they will almost certainly still be bowl-eligible. Also, they didn't really have a legit shot at the Big Ten title anyway since their chances of beating Ohio St in Columbus were pretty remote. As a side note, as it turned out The Fieldhouse was just not a good place to be Saturday night as the crowd was packed with fans of the Illini, the Indians, and the Terrapins; all of whom lost. However, the Bears game Sunday more than made up for the Saturday letdown, as Brian Griese temporarily saved the Bears season by engineering a 97-yard TD drive with just under 2 minutes to go and no timeouts. It became even more impressive when it came out later that he had lost the audio in his helmet and thus was forced to call all the plays himself. After last week's crushing last-second defeat, it was nice to get one of those back.

So while things evened out for me, I've got to say that I really feel for Indians fans. 3 chances to win one game to get to the World Series and they come up short. Since the Cubs got swept out of the playoffs 2 weeks ago I had been comtemplating whether I would rather have had them go out the way they did this year or in 2003. I thought at the time that I'd rather have this year's result and now after watching the Indians I'm sure of it. It sucks to just get swept out of the playoffs; but it's something entirely different and far more cruel to get "this close" and then have your heart torn out. And by the way, why do I get this feeling that the Red Sox are going to win like 4 more World Series titles in the next 10 years and become the new Yankees? All that good will of being the team that always comes oh-so-close but never wins it is going to evaporate in a hurry, let me tell you. Actually, between the Series-bound Red Sox, the undefeated Patriots, and #2 Boston College most of the Boston goodwill is probably already gone.

Speaking of gone, the movie I mentioned that we saw on Friday night was Gone Baby Gone, which is the directorial debut of Ben Affleck and is based on the novel by Dennis Lehane (who also wrote Mystic River). Christy and I both agree that it's the best movie we've each seen this year. Since it's a thriller, I can't really talk about it without giving away too much, but what makes it so good is that when the inevitable twists come they actually make a lot of sense within the context of the story and are consistent with the characters and don't simply happen because the writer decided there needed to be a twist here. Casey Affleck also does a much better job than I thought he would. It's not an Oscar-worthy performance, but anytime you can share the screen with Ed Harris and Morgan Freeman and hold your own, you've done an admirable job.

We Be Cultured

Starting with a poor decision to see a truly awful musical called Bark! (which is in the spirit of cats where all the actors are dogs at a local pound) right after we moved into the city Christy and I have struck out more times than not whenever we have attempted to delve into the realm of Chicago Theatre. All you really need to know about the play Bark! is that it ends with the line (shouted by all the characters) "Come on you pussies, bark!" On the heels of that debachle, we saw Wicked a month later and despised that as well. All you really need to know about that play is that it says "how about we take the Wicked Witch and model her after the ugly duckling, take the Good Witch and model her after Reese Witherspoon in Legally Blonde, and take the Professor and model him after Hitler." We did finally break the trend when we saw "Who's Afraid of Virginia Wolfe?" this past summer, but even that wasn't without incident since Kathleen Turner was sick and missed the performance. On Friday, Christy and I once again decided to try our luck with Chicago Theatre by going to see a play called Passion (no relation to the Mel Gibson movie) at the Chicago Shakespeare Theatre at Navy Pier. The result was, well, better than Bark! and Wicked but not much else. To summarize, it's a musical drama set in the early 1900s about a love triangle between a married woman, a young soldier, and the sickly cousin of his commanding officer. It was pretty well written and all the performances were solid, but the music just really detracted from the whole thing. I have no bias against musicals, but in this case there were absolutely no memorable songs or even clear melodies most of the time. Basically most scenes boil down to some good dramatic dialog that builds to a crescendo and then the singing begins and rather than elevate the level of emotion and drama it ends up completely deflating it. Had they just spoken the exact same lines instead of singing them, the result would have been a far superior product. It's a shame, too, because every other piece of this play works (acting, writing, direction, pacing) but ultimately it's a case of trying to fit a round peg into a square hole that derails it. So far, the common thread that has run through two of our poor selections is Ana Gastemeyer (the SNL alum who starred in both Wicked and Passion). Sorry Ana, but I think we're done with you for a while.

We did fare better last night when we went to see the premier of Slipstream, a new film starring Anthony Hopkins that was playing as part of the Chicago Film Festival at the Music Box Theatre. In addition to starring in it, he also wrote, directed, and scored it. He was also present to introduce the film as well. About all I can say about him is that he seemed like a nice guy, since he didn't say much other than thank a bunch of people and hoped that we enjoyed it. There's really no good way that I can describe the film to you, since it's one of those "warped reality" type of films. The closest I can come is to say that it's about a writer who is losing his mind and the characters he is writing about start appearing in his life and vice versa. In general, though, I'd say that if you are a fan of David Lynch then you will like this movie (which I am and did). However, Christy is not a fan of Lynch but she still liked it. It's one of those films where although it is weird and certainly not everything ties together, you still do have the notion that it is playing by a real set of rules (rather than just randomness) and that there is some sense amidst the disorder. With movies like this, since you don't have a linear, cohesive storyline it becomes essential that each individual scene is able to work and entertain on its own, and that's something that I think this film does exceptionally well (something I think can also be said for Lynch's Mulholland Drive, which is one of my favorite movies of all time). The movie aside, I'd just like to say that everyone who hasn't yet needs to experience a film at the Music Box Theatre. It really is like going back in time to see a movie. The main theatre is a huge 400-500 person auditorium with extremely intricate designs and gold trim on the walls. A large red velvet curtain hangs over the screen before the show and music from an antique gold organ located just to the left of the screen provides the pre-show entertainment (even if you don't like organ music, you can't deny that it is light years better than the 15 minutes of advertising you're forced to sit through at AMCs now). Sure, there are drawbacks. There's no stadium seating and of course the old style seats lack modern amenities like cup holders and frankly aren't the most comfortable things in the world. But when you see a film there, you feel like you're connecting back with a time when it really was an event to go and see a movie, rather than just a way to kill 2 hours on a Saturday night when nothing else is going on.

I finally finished Fiasco and am still dilligently working on my Iraq War post. I hope to have something suitable for blogging by the end of the week. In the meantime, I am starting on Alan Greenspan's book this week and also am going to begin studying for the first part of the CPA exam. Lucky, lucky me. Finally, I got out and ran for the first time since the marathon yesterday. Only 3 miles, but it felt good to run and my knee held up pretty well.

26.2: The Play by Play (or Step by Step)

Yes, I am the exceptionally goofy-looking guy in all white wearing the headband. And just to my right and slightly ahead of me is my friend Phil who was both stupid enough to allow me to con him into running this one drunken night and also gracious enough to run it step for step with me the whole way yesterday. Just over Phil's right shoulder you can see my dad, who met us at the 25 mile marker and went most of the rest of the way in with us. The person taking the picture is my brother Joe, who met us at just past the mile 21 marker and walked with us the rest of the way (which was more work than it sounds considering he'd made the poor decision to wear a black t-shirt).

So, the end result was 5:53:34 but the bottom line was that I finished, got my medal, and am still alive to tell the tale. I would have considered that an accomplishment under any setting, but coming during the hottest Chicago Marathon on record and on a knee that I was positive was going to give out on me I couldn't be happier with the result. I also can't believe that a day after I had to witness in-person the demise of the Cubs season I am still considering this a really good weekend (the Bears come from behind victory helped too).

I'd just like to take a quick moment to thank everybody who sent me words of encouragement and congratulations leading up to and after the marathon. It was nice to feel the love and also just to know that people cared about something I was doing. I'd also like to thank Christy, Liz, Megan, my dad, my brothers Joe and Zack, and Phil and Christy's parents for coming out yesterday and supporting Phil and I. It's one thing to get random encouragment from spectators, but it means so much more when it comes directly at you from people you know. Of course I have to save a special thank you to Christy, who dealt with our lives revolving around my training schedule for the last 4 months and encouraged me at every step even though as a wife she was more worried about my health and safety than she was excited about me doing this. Thanks dear, you are the best!

Now I'd just like to share some thoughts, sights, and quotes from the day to give you a feel for what the experience was like.

5:30 A.M. - The alarm goes off. Way too early, considering that I just got to sleep a little before 1. I get up, shower and dress and greet Phil (who stayed over Saturday night) with "I don't know about you, but I'm ready to do something incredibly stupid!"

6:40 A.M. - We get on the el which, predictably, is a madhouse. At the next stop, a group of four French people get on. One of them is wearing an all red-white-and-blue spandex suit and has a giant French flag strapped to his back. He is also wearing a beret. All he needs is to be holding wine and cheese in his hand and he would be the perfect French stereotype.

7:35 A.M. - Phil and I reach the starting gate and get ourselves in with the 9:00 min/mile pace people so that we can get across the starting line earlier. We're not trying to be jackasses, but the course closes 6 and a half hours after the gun and thus the faster you get across the start line the more time you have. If you haven't seen the marathon before, just imagine they took Wrigley Field during a sold out Cubs game and emptied them all out into a 4 block area and held them there. Now also imagine that there are people from about 50 different countries present, all speaking different languages and holding or wearing flags you've never seen before. We sit down and stretch for a while and try not to think about the fact that we'll be running for the next 6 hours.

8:10 A.M. - We get across the starting line quicker than I thought, leaving us a whole 6:20 to finish in. We can do over 14-minute miles now and still finish in time. Woo-hoo!

~9:00 A.M. - We stop at the Port-O-Potties at the 5 mile marker. This is only significant because, despite the fact that at just about every water station the rest of the way we drink at least 2 cups of gatorade and one cup of water we will never even feel the slightest need to use the facilities again.

~9:35 A.M. - We are near the 8-mile marker and my knee starts to whine. Uh oh.

~9:50 A.M - My knee goes numb. Score! We are in upper Lakeview/Boys Town and there are massive crowds on both sides. I want to skip our walk break because it's very easy to run when you've got shade and a big audience.

~10:00 A.M. - Just before the 10-mile marker we see Christy, Liz, and Megan and about a minute later see my dad and brothers. Then we turn onto North Ave. There's a good amount of shade and a huge crowd on both sides of the street cheering us on. Just before the turn at Wells, there is an Elvis imitator performing. I don't feel the least bit tired. I say to myself "This is actually a lot more fun than I thought it would be. You know what? I might actually end up running another one of these."

~10:20 A.M. - After running down Wells for a mile and a half, during which time there is virtually no shade, no breeze, and the temperature has risen to approximately the temperature of the surface of the sun I think to myself "This is quite possibly the worst idea I've ever had. You know what? I'm glad that the first guy that ever ran a marathon dropped dead afterwards. Served him right."

~10:45 A.M. - We reach the halfway point, and the comfortable numbness of my knee is gone. I have the distinct feeling (correct, as it turns out) that this time it will not be going numb again.

~11:15 A.M. - We are past the west loop, over by the United Center. This area is markedly more suburban-looking which means both smaller buildings (and thus less shade) and not nearly as many people cheering us on. Fatigue starts to become a real issue, and I make the executive decision to modify our ratio of 4 mintes of running and 1 minute of walking to 3/2. Phil concurs with this decision.

~11:45 A.M. - We are entering Little Italy and coming to the 18-mile marker. There's a lot more people here and we are getting a 2nd (or third, or maybe fourth) wind. Christy, Liz, and Megan have come down from the north side to cheer us on here and Christy's parents are here as well. We get a nice boost.

~12:00 P.M. - We get to the water station past the mile 19 marker and hear that "the marathon has been cancelled." We have pretty much no other information other than that, but everyone seems to still be doing the course so we just keep going.

~12:15 P.M. - Just past the 20 mile marker, police officers are coming into the street and forcibly stopping people from running. We still have no idea what exactly is going on, and the announcement over the bullhorn that "the marathon has been cancelled due to a heat emergency" is decidedly unhelpful. All I can think of is "after all this, are you seriously going to tell me that I'm not going to be able to finish this and I'll have to run another one?"

~ 12: 35 P.M. - Walking now, we pass the 21 mile marker in Chinatown and see my dad and brother Joe. Joe decides to walk along with us and we see if he has any additional information. All he knows is that out of the 45,000 registered entrants, 10,000 didn't even show up due to the heat. My knee informs me that it will be doing no more bending the rest of the way.

~12:55 P.M. - Around the 22 mile marker we finally get the real story from a police officer. Yes, we are still allowed to complete the course but we are supposed to walk due to the heat and the fact that some water stations are out of water and the paramedics have been overwhelmed. We are still being timed and will still get our medals. This information improves the mood significantly.

2:03 P.M. - After walking the last 5 miles, we run through the giant mister (the photo at the top), walk the giant hill on Roosevelt, and then run down Columbus through the finish. We get our medals and then a free beer. What more could you ask for?

So all in all, had we not been forced to walk I think our time would have been right around 5:30. However, the difference between a time of 5:53 and 5:30 doesn't really mean anything. Anyone who's run a marathon before knows that both times are slow, and anyone who hasn't has absolutely no frame of reference and is just impressed that you finished.

Alright, not to make this post any more long-winded, I'll just leave you with some best-ofs from the day:

Best sign: Tie: Giant picture of David Hasselhoff captioned with "The Hoff says run Maria!" and one that said "Release Your Inner Kenyan"

Best outfit (runner): A man dressed up as giant pair of hairy testicles. Apparently he was running to benefit testicular cancer research. We only saw him once around the 5 mile mark, and none of our cheering section saw him so I'm guessing he dropped out pretty quick. That suit looked sweltering. Honorable mentions to Captain American and The Flash running together. By the looks of things, The Flash has really let himself go.

Best outfit (spectator): Two guys in Lakeview. One with a shirt that said "Gay" and next to him a shirt that said "Gayer".

Best Quote: Also a tie:

Spectator: You guys are beautiful.
Runner: I don't feel beautiful.

and

Cop (in a car, through the bullhorn after we had been told to walk): Do not run, or we will chase you.

OK, that's all I got folks. Today I am at home recuperating, icing the knee, blogging, and generally taking some well earned r&r. I plan to take my shirt (after washing of course), number, medal, and the picture of Phil and I after the finish and have them all framed together to hopefully hang in my study/den/office one day alongside my degrees (and, knock on wood, my CPA certification). When I'm recovered, I plan to go back to running about 15 miles per week (3 miles, 5 times per week). But more importantly I plan to never, EVER, run another one of these again!